* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/17/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 27 27 23 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 27 27 23 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 24 24 23 23 24 25 26 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 35 36 45 43 38 42 36 33 25 27 31 39 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -3 -9 -10 -7 -2 -7 -5 -6 -4 -8 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 279 278 282 284 280 284 280 283 283 282 281 272 273 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 146 145 144 145 145 146 147 147 147 147 149 200 MB T (C) -55.5 -55.4 -55.4 -55.4 -55.3 -54.9 -55.3 -55.6 -55.4 -55.1 -54.8 -54.3 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 0.1 0.7 0.4 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 53 53 54 56 57 62 62 61 63 62 59 56 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 22 25 23 19 24 24 29 22 24 16 25 37 20 200 MB DIV 5 -9 -10 1 6 -27 -23 -41 -3 3 -2 -37 -44 700-850 TADV 0 -4 -3 -3 -3 -6 -6 -4 -2 -3 -1 0 2 LAND (KM) 1554 1626 1677 1718 1738 1770 1802 1886 1991 3902 3919 3954 2087 LAT (DEG N) 22.6 22.9 22.9 22.9 22.9 22.5 22.2 21.9 21.7 21.3 20.9 20.6 20.6 LONG(DEG W) 174.9 175.6 176.1 176.5 176.7 177.0 177.3 178.1 179.1 180.1 180.6 180.5 179.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 4 3 2 2 2 5 5 4 2 2 4 HEAT CONTENT 34 34 32 30 28 26 24 20 21 25 27 30 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 748 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 17. 24. 29. 32. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. -7. -20. -32. -41. -47. -48. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -7. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. -2. -10. -17. -21. -23. -22. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 22.6 174.9 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/17/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.74 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 39.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.28 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.17 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.39 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 139.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.72 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.93 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.10 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/17/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX