* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/17/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 23 23 25 29 29 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 30 33 34 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 30 33 33 31 26 20 16 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 19 15 13 14 16 21 44 64 76 88 104 102 84 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 0 2 -1 -1 4 6 -5 -1 9 SHEAR DIR 275 282 269 276 263 252 247 242 245 233 228 222 219 SST (C) 26.4 26.1 25.8 25.6 25.5 24.1 19.4 22.0 22.0 17.9 20.4 19.5 17.4 POT. INT. (KT) 118 115 113 111 112 102 81 91 91 78 84 79 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 99 97 95 94 96 91 75 82 82 73 76 71 66 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.2 -51.3 -51.6 -51.7 -52.9 -54.1 -54.3 -53.3 -53.0 -54.0 -53.9 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 3 7 6 3 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 55 57 56 57 57 53 51 46 53 60 65 60 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 12 11 10 9 11 13 14 15 13 13 17 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -24 -30 -35 -7 42 78 107 116 130 123 123 87 200 MB DIV 8 3 32 12 4 31 46 73 42 76 74 58 23 700-850 TADV 20 13 7 21 -10 19 4 -45 -64 -50 -11 -2 -97 LAND (KM) -431 -490 -512 -411 -312 -61 222 218 368 396 827 1147 1346 LAT (DEG N) 36.4 37.4 38.4 39.2 39.9 41.2 42.2 42.9 43.5 44.5 46.0 47.0 47.7 LONG(DEG W) 82.4 82.0 81.5 80.1 78.8 73.7 67.8 61.9 55.7 49.1 42.2 37.6 34.8 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 13 17 21 22 22 24 25 21 13 10 HEAT CONTENT 7 7 6 5 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):346/ 10 CX,CY: -1/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 756 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 8. 0. -14. -32. -54. -76. -93. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 16. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -6. -4. -4. -5. -8. -8. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 4. 4. -5. -20. -39. -56. -68. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 36.4 82.4 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/17/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.51 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.53 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 2.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.49 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 143.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.78 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.2 28.4 to 141.4 0.38 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 13.7% 12.1% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 3.9% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 2.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 5.2% 4.4% 3.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/17/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/17/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 28 29 30 33 34 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 27 28 31 32 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 24 27 28 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 17 20 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT