* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/17/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 27 27 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 27 27 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 24 24 23 22 23 24 25 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 36 40 41 39 43 34 36 31 20 24 29 42 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -6 -9 -9 -6 0 -4 -5 -5 -3 -4 -6 -9 SHEAR DIR 276 279 278 277 277 289 286 299 282 286 268 270 259 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 144 144 145 145 145 146 145 146 145 146 148 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.6 -55.6 -55.2 -54.8 -55.4 -55.3 -55.6 -55.2 -55.2 -54.8 -54.3 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 51 52 52 53 56 59 59 62 60 60 58 55 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 28 24 21 26 30 26 39 33 32 34 43 45 27 200 MB DIV -8 3 11 1 -14 -31 -27 -14 4 -5 -19 -28 -46 700-850 TADV -5 -2 -3 -5 -7 -4 -8 -2 -5 -2 -3 -3 -5 LAND (KM) 1606 1668 1709 1750 1770 1800 1813 1877 1948 2021 2042 2013 1909 LAT (DEG N) 23.1 23.4 23.4 23.4 23.2 22.7 22.1 21.8 21.9 21.8 21.7 21.5 21.6 LONG(DEG W) 175.4 176.0 176.4 176.8 177.0 177.3 177.4 178.0 178.7 179.4 179.6 179.3 178.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 3 6 HEAT CONTENT 34 31 29 27 27 25 24 21 20 23 23 22 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 726 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 17. 24. 28. 32. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. -7. -19. -30. -39. -44. -46. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -8. -14. -17. -20. -19. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 23.1 175.4 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/17/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.73 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 39.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.27 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.17 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.34 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 146.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.71 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.88 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.06 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/17/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX