* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/17/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 18 18 17 22 26 27 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 25 27 29 29 30 36 37 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 20 25 28 29 29 30 33 33 31 26 21 17 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 11 13 18 23 36 47 63 62 66 58 36 47 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -1 0 3 0 -4 8 11 7 18 12 SHEAR DIR 280 270 263 255 264 241 239 238 235 226 211 221 225 SST (C) 24.4 24.0 23.4 22.9 23.1 20.8 21.8 24.2 25.1 23.9 25.0 23.3 19.8 POT. INT. (KT) 101 98 95 93 95 86 90 103 110 102 109 97 81 ADJ. POT. INT. 86 84 82 82 85 79 82 90 96 91 96 85 74 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -51.0 -51.1 -51.4 -51.8 -53.0 -54.0 -54.3 -53.7 -53.6 -54.7 -55.7 -56.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 8 7 3 1 2 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 47 48 50 52 54 51 47 48 58 69 73 53 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 14 12 11 10 11 13 15 18 16 12 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -28 -6 4 38 64 117 109 111 143 151 101 34 200 MB DIV 6 30 5 -10 -7 46 53 48 41 46 79 3 48 700-850 TADV 13 8 13 -16 -10 3 -45 -86 -89 -58 -20 -26 21 LAND (KM) -621 -611 -547 -412 -320 -58 189 405 571 676 1071 1336 1497 LAT (DEG N) 38.0 38.8 39.5 40.2 40.9 41.8 41.8 41.7 41.6 41.5 41.5 43.1 45.9 LONG(DEG W) 83.4 82.5 81.7 79.9 78.1 72.2 65.5 59.8 54.6 48.7 41.8 36.9 33.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 12 15 19 24 23 20 21 24 22 19 19 HEAT CONTENT 7 7 5 5 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 13 CX,CY: -2/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 929 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 6. 9. 12. 15. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 9. 0. -14. -30. -45. -55. -63. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 15. 16. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -2. -5. -11. -16. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -3. 2. 6. 7. 1. -14. -29. -39. -46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 38.0 83.4 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/17/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.51 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.50 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.8 0.0 to 157.3 0.04 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.59 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 130.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.79 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.8 28.4 to 141.4 0.31 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.16 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 35.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.65 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 1.2% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/17/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/17/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 25 27 29 29 30 36 37 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 20 19 21 23 23 24 30 31 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 18 19 25 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT