* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/17/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 25 24 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 25 24 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 24 23 22 21 20 20 20 20 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 41 39 38 40 40 34 39 30 31 30 35 36 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -8 -8 -4 0 -5 -6 -7 -4 -5 -2 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 276 276 275 278 292 287 291 288 282 277 265 260 264 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 146 146 146 148 149 149 149 152 153 153 151 200 MB T (C) -55.5 -55.7 -55.2 -54.8 -55.0 -55.2 -55.1 -55.2 -54.8 -54.6 -54.3 -54.2 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.4 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 52 52 53 55 57 57 60 59 60 58 58 53 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 29 25 27 30 36 44 47 50 33 32 20 0 -32 200 MB DIV 3 13 0 -12 -13 -1 -29 15 -2 -3 -21 -8 -11 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -5 -7 -4 -6 -4 -2 -1 0 3 5 5 LAND (KM) 1718 1790 1831 1851 1862 1866 1886 1913 1918 1879 1751 1595 1442 LAT (DEG N) 23.1 23.2 23.1 22.9 22.5 21.8 20.9 20.5 20.2 20.1 20.3 21.1 22.2 LONG(DEG W) 176.5 177.2 177.6 177.8 177.9 177.9 178.0 178.2 178.2 177.8 176.6 175.2 173.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 3 3 4 5 3 2 1 4 7 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 28 24 23 22 20 19 21 25 28 26 24 27 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 715 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 4. 10. 17. 24. 29. 33. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. -7. -18. -30. -40. -46. -47. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -5. -12. -18. -22. -24. -24. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 23.1 176.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/17/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.75 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 39.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 146.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.72 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.77 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.20 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/17/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX