* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/17/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 27 27 23 19 16 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 27 27 23 19 16 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 24 24 23 23 23 24 26 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 36 36 38 37 30 32 31 22 19 23 30 35 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -7 -2 0 0 -3 -5 -6 -1 -4 -3 -8 0 SHEAR DIR 278 273 276 289 294 288 303 284 289 264 263 247 253 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 147 147 148 149 148 147 147 147 148 149 147 200 MB T (C) -55.7 -55.3 -54.9 -55.0 -55.4 -55.2 -55.3 -54.9 -55.1 -54.7 -54.7 -54.5 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 51 52 55 57 58 59 62 63 61 59 57 53 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 7 6 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 27 28 35 40 41 53 54 51 46 59 60 49 -14 200 MB DIV 8 2 -4 -12 -19 -14 0 28 14 0 -16 -12 -6 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -6 -4 -4 -8 -2 -3 -1 -2 -3 0 13 LAND (KM) 1780 1831 1851 1863 1865 1841 1814 1801 1796 1761 1698 1527 1295 LAT (DEG N) 23.1 23.1 22.8 22.4 22.0 21.2 20.9 21.1 21.6 22.1 22.7 23.7 24.9 LONG(DEG W) 177.1 177.6 177.8 177.9 177.9 177.6 177.3 177.2 177.2 176.9 176.3 174.6 172.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 4 4 4 4 1 1 3 3 6 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 25 23 21 19 19 21 22 23 22 23 28 28 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 753 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 4. 10. 17. 24. 29. 32. 35. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -5. -14. -24. -31. -36. -37. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -7. -7. -6. -7. -9. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. -2. -6. -9. -10. -11. -11. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 23.1 177.1 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/17/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.75 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.19 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 139.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.72 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.88 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.26 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/17/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX