* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/18/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 27 26 24 20 18 17 15 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 27 26 24 20 18 17 15 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 24 23 22 22 22 24 26 26 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 37 39 40 31 30 33 21 21 16 28 33 39 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -2 -1 -1 -3 -3 -7 -3 -5 -5 -4 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 273 274 287 294 286 296 302 291 280 258 249 244 239 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.1 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 148 147 148 148 149 148 148 147 149 148 142 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -54.9 -55.0 -55.3 -55.3 -55.1 -55.1 -55.2 -55.1 -54.8 -54.6 -54.1 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 53 55 56 58 58 60 61 63 62 57 55 53 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 27 33 42 43 48 59 56 45 66 65 68 20 -22 200 MB DIV 11 2 -13 -11 -2 -24 16 9 13 0 0 -24 12 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -4 -4 -6 -3 -1 0 -1 -3 3 8 5 LAND (KM) 1841 1883 1905 1908 1900 1879 1855 1839 1813 1749 1619 1378 1108 LAT (DEG N) 22.8 22.6 22.2 21.8 21.5 20.7 20.9 21.4 22.1 22.8 23.8 25.1 26.8 LONG(DEG W) 177.7 178.1 178.3 178.3 178.2 177.9 177.7 177.6 177.4 176.8 175.5 172.9 169.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 4 2 2 3 4 5 11 16 18 HEAT CONTENT 21 20 19 19 19 22 21 20 21 25 29 13 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 748 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 4. 10. 17. 24. 29. 32. 35. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -4. -13. -21. -28. -35. -37. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -6. -6. -9. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 22.8 177.7 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/18/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.75 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.17 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 130.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.73 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.93 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.38 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/18/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX