* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/18/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 27 26 24 20 18 17 16 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 27 26 24 20 18 17 16 16 DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 24 23 23 23 23 25 26 26 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 44 45 36 30 31 31 20 20 18 25 25 30 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -7 -5 -3 -1 -7 -5 -3 -4 -2 -3 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 272 283 286 283 286 305 290 293 272 271 257 283 293 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 148 148 149 147 148 148 148 149 149 151 153 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -55.1 -55.4 -55.3 -55.1 -55.2 -54.9 -55.0 -54.6 -54.7 -54.2 -54.2 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 52 53 55 55 57 60 60 61 57 54 48 45 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 10 9 8 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 33 37 37 47 52 53 53 43 44 41 36 17 -6 200 MB DIV 0 -7 -11 6 -9 -19 -5 18 7 -15 -24 -50 -63 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -4 -6 -8 -3 -3 -2 -3 -2 -2 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 1903 1946 1969 1963 1968 1963 1981 1998 2058 3873 3797 3718 3655 LAT (DEG N) 22.5 22.2 21.8 21.4 21.0 20.6 20.8 21.0 21.2 21.3 21.6 21.8 21.8 LONG(DEG W) 178.3 178.7 178.9 178.8 178.8 178.7 178.9 179.1 179.7 180.7 181.7 183.0 184.5 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 4 1 2 2 3 5 5 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 20 20 20 20 22 27 24 24 25 28 28 33 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 733 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 4. 10. 17. 24. 29. 32. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -4. -13. -21. -29. -33. -34. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -7. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -4. -7. -8. -9. -9. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 22.5 178.3 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/18/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.76 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 37.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.18 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 135.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.73 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.37 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/18/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX