* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/18/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 26 28 32 40 43 42 39 36 31 28 25 V (KT) LAND 20 26 32 35 38 46 49 48 46 42 38 34 31 V (KT) LGEM 20 27 31 31 32 34 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 26 22 30 32 31 36 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 0 -2 -1 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 266 249 238 243 234 216 252 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 20.9 20.9 21.0 21.6 23.8 28.0 27.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 84 82 83 87 98 138 132 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 75 72 74 77 85 114 107 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -52.8 -53.3 -53.9 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.6 1.2 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 4 3 3 3 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 50 48 44 41 39 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 8 11 10 11 14 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 79 63 71 89 120 115 118 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 7 38 45 41 34 33 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 29 -21 -12 -32 -43 -97 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -147 -51 29 147 292 505 617 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 42.2 41.7 41.2 40.5 39.8 39.1 38.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 73.3 72.3 71.3 69.6 68.0 64.0 61.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 9 12 14 15 12 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 4 0 0 0 45 11 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 25 CX,CY: 22/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 679 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 4. 8. 11. 14. 16. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. 8. 0. -9. -18. -26. -32. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. 14. 15. 17. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 8. 12. 20. 23. 22. 19. 16. 11. 8. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 42.2 73.3 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/18/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.07 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.6 0.0 to 157.3 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.60 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 135.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.79 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.7 28.4 to 141.4 0.25 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.29 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 49.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.51 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/18/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/18/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 26 32 35 38 46 49 48 46 42 38 34 31 18HR AGO 20 19 25 28 31 39 42 41 39 35 31 27 24 12HR AGO 20 17 16 19 22 30 33 32 30 26 22 18 15 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT