* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/18/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 24 24 23 21 19 18 16 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 24 24 23 21 19 18 16 16 DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 24 23 23 23 23 24 24 24 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 38 28 29 29 28 23 23 20 23 23 22 23 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -3 0 -1 -6 -5 -3 -5 -3 -4 1 0 2 SHEAR DIR 288 279 279 292 303 295 292 266 267 261 283 300 355 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 148 149 149 149 150 150 150 151 152 153 155 200 MB T (C) -55.5 -55.4 -55.2 -55.0 -55.0 -54.4 -54.6 -54.2 -54.2 -53.7 -54.0 -53.9 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 -0.2 -0.5 -0.3 -0.5 -0.7 -0.6 -0.6 -0.1 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 53 54 55 57 58 59 59 58 57 52 47 42 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 7 7 7 6 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR 35 48 53 50 50 59 59 59 46 50 25 2 -23 200 MB DIV -4 22 -6 -8 -10 9 4 0 -2 -46 -69 -60 -64 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -7 -3 -1 -4 -2 -4 -1 -2 0 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1978 2001 2015 2042 2066 3983 3965 3942 3905 3857 3794 3723 3606 LAT (DEG N) 22.0 21.7 21.3 20.8 20.6 20.5 20.4 20.4 20.5 20.7 20.9 21.1 21.2 LONG(DEG W) 179.0 179.2 179.3 179.5 179.7 180.1 180.7 181.2 181.8 182.4 183.4 184.6 186.2 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 4 2 3 2 3 3 4 5 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 22 22 22 26 28 26 24 24 26 28 32 36 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):235/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 689 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 0. 4. 10. 17. 24. 29. 33. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -9. -18. -24. -29. -28. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -8. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 22.0 179.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/18/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.76 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.17 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.38 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 126.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.74 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 38.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.38 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.23 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/18/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX