* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINETEEN EP192018 09/20/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 30 31 36 41 45 49 52 55 60 61 V (KT) LAND 30 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 15 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 217 218 219 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.5 30.6 30.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 169 171 168 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.8 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 66 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 77 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 59 68 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 8 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 41 -5 -80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.0 27.9 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.7 110.6 110.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 31 22 34 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 6 CX,CY: 2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 668 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 3.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 7. 14. 23. 29. 33. 36. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 3. -2. -7. -12. -15. -14. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. 0. 1. 6. 11. 15. 19. 22. 25. 30. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 27.0 110.7 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192018 NINETEEN 09/20/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.91 7.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.20 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.26 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.50 3.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 103.3 721.6 to -82.5 0.77 -3.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.79 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.44 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.0% 21.5% 18.5% 12.2% 8.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.4% 1.2% 0.9% 0.3% 0.2% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 3.1% 7.6% 6.5% 4.1% 2.7% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192018 NINETEEN 09/20/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX