* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIRK AL122018 09/22/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 42 45 47 50 52 54 57 57 57 56 55 V (KT) LAND 35 39 42 45 47 50 52 54 57 57 57 56 55 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 40 43 46 51 54 56 58 58 56 52 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 4 5 7 12 11 14 15 20 22 29 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 4 4 1 0 0 -1 -1 1 4 2 2 SHEAR DIR 46 47 88 187 217 247 253 248 262 243 251 249 259 SST (C) 27.2 27.0 26.7 26.7 26.7 27.6 28.3 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.9 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 127 125 122 123 124 135 145 149 147 145 145 151 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 128 125 127 128 144 159 163 157 150 148 150 149 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.2 -54.3 -54.5 -54.4 -54.2 -54.4 -54.4 -54.6 -54.3 -54.6 -54.2 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 10 700-500 MB RH 66 66 65 67 67 69 65 64 61 64 65 66 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 64 54 50 43 40 32 11 0 -8 -15 -19 -9 -9 200 MB DIV 29 7 -16 -34 -43 -38 -6 30 34 57 51 51 20 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -1 4 6 2 0 0 -3 -5 -5 -5 -3 LAND (KM) 808 893 990 1135 1304 1664 1782 1408 1122 942 837 756 614 LAT (DEG N) 8.1 8.6 9.1 9.4 9.8 10.5 11.1 11.7 12.2 12.7 13.0 13.7 14.4 LONG(DEG W) 22.9 24.1 25.3 26.8 28.5 32.2 36.6 41.0 45.3 48.9 52.1 54.7 56.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 16 18 20 22 22 20 17 14 12 10 HEAT CONTENT 18 16 12 13 11 12 10 11 12 39 26 22 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 8.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 13. 18. 23. 26. 30. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 12. 15. 17. 19. 22. 22. 22. 21. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 8.1 22.9 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122018 KIRK 09/22/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 6.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.86 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.09 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.76 2.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.42 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.34 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 155.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.77 2.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.6 28.4 to 141.4 0.57 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.08 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.1% 21.2% 17.8% 13.0% 10.8% 13.3% 11.9% 21.3% Logistic: 6.0% 24.9% 15.5% 9.0% 7.9% 22.9% 19.6% 19.9% Bayesian: 0.9% 23.5% 5.5% 0.6% 0.3% 1.8% 0.1% 10.2% Consensus: 4.7% 23.2% 12.9% 7.6% 6.3% 12.7% 10.5% 17.1% DTOPS: 2.0% 15.0% 8.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122018 KIRK 09/22/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 39 42 45 47 50 52 54 57 57 57 56 55 18HR AGO 35 34 37 40 42 45 47 49 52 52 52 51 50 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 36 39 41 43 46 46 46 45 44 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 30 32 34 37 37 37 36 35 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT