* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELEVEN AL112018 09/23/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 23 22 21 22 23 22 21 20 23 25 V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 23 22 21 22 23 22 21 20 23 25 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 23 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 30 33 35 36 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -3 -3 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 267 269 271 264 261 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 148 150 150 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 137 141 142 142 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -55.1 -55.1 -54.7 -54.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 47 45 46 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 3 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -10 -15 -6 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -9 1 29 27 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 806 763 725 686 652 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.0 14.2 14.5 14.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 54.2 54.8 55.3 55.9 56.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 23 25 26 27 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 20. 25. 29. 34. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -14. -20. -27. -31. -33. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -3. -4. -5. -2. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.7 54.2 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112018 ELEVEN 09/23/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.22 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.14 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 190.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.73 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.2 28.4 to 141.4 0.78 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 85.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.15 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 999.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% Consensus: 0.8% 1.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 999.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112018 ELEVEN 09/23/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112018 ELEVEN 09/23/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 24 23 22 21 22 23 22 21 20 23 25 18HR AGO 25 24 23 22 21 20 21 22 21 20 19 22 24 12HR AGO 25 22 21 20 19 18 19 20 19 18 17 20 22 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT