* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIRK AL122018 09/23/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 40 42 49 52 59 64 68 71 72 70 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 40 42 49 52 59 64 68 71 72 70 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 39 41 45 50 57 64 70 73 73 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 2 4 5 6 5 5 14 13 11 13 17 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 4 4 3 4 4 -2 0 3 3 6 6 SHEAR DIR 85 231 270 281 285 288 292 309 293 279 259 270 250 SST (C) 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.5 27.9 28.7 29.3 29.5 29.2 29.1 29.4 29.3 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 125 126 128 134 140 151 160 163 157 155 160 158 160 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 132 136 146 153 167 175 174 167 161 165 160 161 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.6 -54.4 -54.2 -54.2 -54.4 -54.2 -54.1 -53.8 -54.2 -53.9 -54.3 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 68 70 70 70 69 68 65 62 63 62 64 66 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 13 12 12 13 12 13 13 13 12 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 57 52 48 48 49 45 37 19 19 9 7 0 16 200 MB DIV 1 -8 -38 -25 2 2 25 28 62 40 55 36 47 700-850 TADV -2 1 2 -1 -3 -2 -3 -4 -5 -5 -2 -4 -8 LAND (KM) 1033 1209 1392 1623 1842 1567 1157 882 709 636 577 377 307 LAT (DEG N) 8.8 9.1 9.3 9.5 9.6 9.7 9.9 10.3 10.8 11.3 11.8 12.5 13.5 LONG(DEG W) 25.6 27.4 29.2 31.4 33.6 38.1 42.5 46.4 49.8 52.8 55.5 58.0 60.4 STM SPEED (KT) 16 18 20 22 22 22 20 18 16 14 14 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 13 16 13 12 10 11 12 27 26 27 23 41 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 13.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 14. 19. 24. 29. 34. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 14. 17. 24. 29. 33. 36. 37. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 8.8 25.6 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122018 KIRK 09/23/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 5.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.94 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.8 0.0 to 157.3 0.08 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.39 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.64 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.34 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 139.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.78 2.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.3 28.4 to 141.4 0.67 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.07 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 49% is 9.1 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 19.9% 16.3% 11.1% 9.1% 13.2% 14.2% 49.3% Logistic: 3.4% 13.8% 8.1% 2.1% 1.1% 6.9% 12.4% 36.1% Bayesian: 0.3% 3.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.5% 25.6% Consensus: 3.0% 12.3% 8.3% 4.4% 3.4% 6.8% 9.0% 37.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 12.0% 7.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122018 KIRK 09/23/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 38 40 42 49 52 59 64 68 71 72 70 18HR AGO 35 34 36 38 40 47 50 57 62 66 69 70 68 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 35 42 45 52 57 61 64 65 63 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 34 37 44 49 53 56 57 55 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT