* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIRK AL122018 09/23/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 41 44 49 54 60 66 69 69 69 68 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 41 44 49 54 60 66 69 69 69 68 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 38 40 44 49 56 64 71 77 77 73 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 4 6 7 5 5 11 13 5 4 14 15 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 5 4 3 2 -2 -3 0 5 3 8 3 SHEAR DIR 228 250 254 276 271 277 302 313 302 281 253 259 255 SST (C) 26.9 27.0 27.3 27.8 28.1 28.9 29.3 29.4 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 126 127 131 138 142 154 160 161 157 158 158 158 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 135 140 150 155 172 175 174 164 164 161 161 164 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.4 -54.0 -54.2 -54.5 -53.9 -54.0 -53.5 -54.0 -53.6 -54.0 -53.3 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 10 11 10 700-500 MB RH 69 70 69 68 70 66 65 65 65 63 67 70 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 53 50 46 45 43 32 33 23 18 16 2 15 27 200 MB DIV 6 -23 -14 1 13 23 35 71 64 77 44 54 61 700-850 TADV 1 4 1 -1 -1 1 -1 -3 -3 -3 1 -2 0 LAND (KM) 1180 1370 1565 1779 1867 1449 1050 790 643 622 545 342 313 LAT (DEG N) 9.0 9.3 9.6 9.8 9.9 10.1 10.2 10.4 10.7 11.3 12.2 12.9 13.6 LONG(DEG W) 27.1 29.0 30.9 33.0 35.2 39.5 44.0 47.9 51.0 53.7 56.2 58.7 61.3 STM SPEED (KT) 17 19 20 21 21 22 20 17 14 13 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 16 13 12 10 9 13 14 33 25 28 25 48 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 13.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 7. 14. 19. 24. 29. 34. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -8. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 19. 25. 31. 34. 34. 34. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 9.0 27.1 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122018 KIRK 09/23/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 5.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.91 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.08 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 2.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.56 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.34 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 143.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.78 2.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.0 28.4 to 141.4 0.70 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.12 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 43% is 8.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 21.3% 17.5% 12.4% 10.2% 14.1% 13.8% 43.0% Logistic: 7.1% 25.1% 16.0% 6.8% 4.6% 18.6% 28.6% 54.2% Bayesian: 0.8% 12.2% 4.5% 0.3% 0.2% 1.3% 1.1% 16.9% Consensus: 4.8% 19.5% 12.7% 6.5% 5.0% 11.3% 14.5% 38.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 8.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122018 KIRK 09/23/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 39 41 44 49 54 60 66 69 69 69 68 18HR AGO 35 34 36 38 41 46 51 57 63 66 66 66 65 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 36 41 46 52 58 61 61 61 60 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 33 38 44 50 53 53 53 52 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT