* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIRK AL122018 09/23/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 41 44 49 53 57 61 61 60 61 60 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 41 44 49 53 57 61 61 60 61 60 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 39 40 45 49 53 57 59 59 58 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 0 4 7 6 7 9 19 19 12 12 18 27 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 7 6 4 5 4 0 -1 3 6 6 3 3 SHEAR DIR 248 271 260 263 291 299 303 294 287 255 250 248 272 SST (C) 27.0 27.4 27.8 28.2 28.7 29.1 29.4 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 127 133 138 144 151 157 162 158 157 160 160 160 160 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 142 150 158 167 173 175 168 165 167 163 160 157 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -53.8 -54.1 -54.5 -54.4 -54.0 -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 -53.7 -54.0 -53.7 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 71 70 70 70 66 64 62 63 59 61 64 67 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 13 14 15 14 14 14 13 12 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 54 51 46 43 39 39 24 18 11 17 12 20 33 200 MB DIV -20 -7 11 17 5 43 40 56 52 55 43 53 45 700-850 TADV 3 0 -1 -3 -3 0 0 -3 -7 -4 -2 -1 -3 LAND (KM) 1405 1616 1813 1826 1606 1210 906 704 608 522 290 234 267 LAT (DEG N) 9.2 9.5 9.8 10.0 10.1 10.3 10.5 10.8 11.1 11.6 12.4 12.9 13.1 LONG(DEG W) 29.3 31.3 33.4 35.6 37.9 42.2 46.3 49.9 53.1 56.1 58.9 61.1 63.0 STM SPEED (KT) 19 20 21 22 22 21 19 17 15 15 13 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 12 9 7 8 15 11 24 25 28 25 38 40 61 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 13.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 6. 13. 19. 24. 29. 34. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 18. 22. 26. 26. 25. 26. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 9.2 29.3 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122018 KIRK 09/23/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 5.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.91 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.06 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 2.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.56 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.34 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 147.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.78 2.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.3 28.4 to 141.4 0.77 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.14 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 21.9% 17.8% 12.5% 10.3% 14.2% 13.4% 24.7% Logistic: 7.0% 23.0% 15.5% 6.6% 3.5% 18.1% 23.1% 28.9% Bayesian: 1.0% 15.8% 4.2% 0.6% 0.1% 1.4% 0.8% 4.9% Consensus: 4.8% 20.2% 12.5% 6.6% 4.6% 11.2% 12.4% 19.5% DTOPS: 2.0% 10.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122018 KIRK 09/23/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 39 41 44 49 53 57 61 61 60 61 60 18HR AGO 35 34 36 38 41 46 50 54 58 58 57 58 57 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 36 41 45 49 53 53 52 53 52 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 33 37 41 45 45 44 45 44 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT