* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIRK AL122018 09/23/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 40 42 45 48 51 53 53 53 51 52 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 40 42 45 48 51 53 53 53 51 52 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 38 39 42 44 46 47 48 47 46 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 6 6 5 12 18 21 11 16 17 33 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 4 6 7 4 2 0 3 5 6 2 5 SHEAR DIR 277 251 234 250 254 291 293 288 277 256 247 266 264 SST (C) 27.4 27.8 28.1 28.6 28.9 29.2 29.4 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 132 137 142 149 154 158 161 155 158 159 159 161 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 148 153 163 169 174 174 164 163 163 161 162 160 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 -53.8 -54.0 -53.6 -54.0 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 11 10 11 11 12 700-500 MB RH 69 70 68 65 66 64 61 63 61 64 64 65 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 15 15 15 15 15 13 13 13 11 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 51 43 38 33 32 26 11 9 14 5 9 19 32 200 MB DIV -9 0 25 21 37 29 49 60 52 57 48 57 51 700-850 TADV 3 1 0 -1 -1 -4 -2 -5 -4 -2 -1 -1 -3 LAND (KM) 1613 1809 1858 1653 1454 1096 828 663 620 513 314 256 322 LAT (DEG N) 9.4 9.7 9.9 10.1 10.2 10.5 10.6 10.9 11.3 11.8 12.5 13.1 13.6 LONG(DEG W) 31.3 33.3 35.3 37.4 39.5 43.7 47.6 51.0 53.9 56.4 58.7 61.0 63.2 STM SPEED (KT) 20 20 20 21 21 20 18 16 13 12 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 9 7 7 14 15 10 33 23 30 26 40 41 62 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 671 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 12.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 6. 13. 19. 24. 29. 34. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. -15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -5. -8. -10. -13. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 16. 18. 18. 18. 16. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 9.4 31.3 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122018 KIRK 09/23/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 5.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.89 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.4 0.0 to 157.3 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 2.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.55 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.34 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 155.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.77 2.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.1 28.4 to 141.4 0.81 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 23.6% 17.9% 12.6% 10.3% 14.3% 13.2% 23.6% Logistic: 4.0% 24.6% 15.4% 6.3% 3.3% 13.5% 17.7% 22.4% Bayesian: 0.3% 4.2% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 1.0% 1.7% Consensus: 3.5% 17.5% 11.5% 6.3% 4.6% 9.3% 10.6% 15.9% DTOPS: 2.0% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122018 KIRK 09/23/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 38 40 42 45 48 51 53 53 53 51 52 18HR AGO 35 34 36 38 40 43 46 49 51 51 51 49 50 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 35 38 41 44 46 46 46 44 45 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 30 33 36 38 38 38 36 37 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT