* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIRK AL122018 09/24/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 29 31 36 43 52 56 55 55 55 55 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 29 31 36 43 52 56 55 55 55 55 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 29 29 30 32 35 39 43 46 46 42 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 7 9 13 17 9 7 12 17 24 30 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 5 2 0 -3 0 1 4 7 8 5 5 SHEAR DIR 278 262 277 287 287 315 323 299 247 255 247 269 261 SST (C) 28.0 28.4 28.8 29.1 29.3 29.5 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 141 146 152 157 160 163 159 158 160 157 161 161 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 155 160 168 173 174 174 172 165 164 159 162 163 165 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.4 -54.3 -53.9 -54.1 -54.2 -53.9 -54.0 -53.6 -53.9 -53.5 -53.8 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 11 10 11 10 11 700-500 MB RH 70 69 65 67 68 64 65 64 63 67 67 66 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 13 13 11 11 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 50 45 38 37 36 14 14 5 7 5 13 19 31 200 MB DIV 0 25 29 63 55 37 58 62 48 65 68 40 60 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -4 -4 -7 -7 -5 -2 0 -6 -5 -5 LAND (KM) 1921 1735 1532 1337 1155 880 670 597 555 357 245 300 385 LAT (DEG N) 9.4 9.6 9.8 9.9 10.0 10.2 10.5 11.0 11.7 12.3 12.9 13.4 14.0 LONG(DEG W) 34.3 36.4 38.5 40.6 42.6 46.3 50.0 53.1 55.7 58.1 60.3 62.7 65.4 STM SPEED (KT) 22 21 21 20 19 18 17 14 13 12 12 12 14 HEAT CONTENT 8 10 16 14 12 25 24 28 26 37 40 57 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 24 CX,CY: -23/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 698 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 9.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. 3. 12. 19. 25. 30. 37. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. 1. 6. 13. 22. 26. 25. 25. 25. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 9.4 34.3 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122018 KIRK 09/24/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.51 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.78 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.08 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 2.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.46 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 120.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.81 2.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.2 28.4 to 141.4 0.95 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.30 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 30% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 19.7% 15.4% 10.7% 8.5% 12.5% 11.2% 29.6% Logistic: 1.9% 16.3% 8.1% 2.8% 1.3% 7.1% 15.0% 33.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% Consensus: 2.3% 12.2% 7.9% 4.5% 3.3% 6.5% 8.7% 21.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122018 KIRK 09/24/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 29 29 31 36 43 52 56 55 55 55 55 18HR AGO 30 29 29 29 31 36 43 52 56 55 55 55 55 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 28 33 40 49 53 52 52 52 52 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 27 34 43 47 46 46 46 46 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT