* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIRK AL122018 09/24/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 30 31 34 41 47 48 47 44 45 47 V (KT) LAND 30 30 29 30 31 34 41 47 48 47 44 45 47 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 32 34 36 40 42 43 42 39 34 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 10 12 16 11 12 15 25 31 37 36 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 -3 -4 3 0 2 1 3 2 2 1 SHEAR DIR 264 293 293 297 311 290 288 255 259 260 273 258 272 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.6 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 159 160 164 167 169 164 158 158 157 161 159 157 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 175 175 175 175 174 174 165 162 159 161 158 157 157 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -54.0 -54.2 -53.9 -54.5 -53.8 -54.0 -53.6 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 63 63 64 64 61 63 61 62 65 68 69 70 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 11 12 12 12 11 11 10 8 8 7 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 37 31 31 25 13 6 -4 -2 -8 5 17 33 42 200 MB DIV 23 55 42 30 37 53 36 54 42 63 35 56 16 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -3 -4 -6 -8 -6 -2 -1 -3 -2 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 1532 1343 1168 1014 886 690 628 562 355 261 311 369 351 LAT (DEG N) 9.8 10.0 10.2 10.4 10.5 10.8 11.3 11.9 12.6 13.1 13.5 13.9 14.3 LONG(DEG W) 38.5 40.6 42.6 44.6 46.6 50.2 53.2 55.9 58.3 60.5 62.6 64.9 67.3 STM SPEED (KT) 21 20 20 20 19 16 14 13 12 11 11 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 16 11 9 12 24 25 27 27 41 38 53 42 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 21 CX,CY: -20/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 8.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. 3. 12. 19. 25. 30. 37. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 3. 0. -4. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -10. -13. -14. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. 0. 1. 4. 11. 17. 18. 17. 14. 15. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 9.8 38.5 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122018 KIRK 09/24/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.68 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.4 0.0 to 157.3 0.09 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.26 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 148.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.78 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 144.9 28.4 to 141.4 1.00 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.31 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 16.8% 12.3% 8.5% 6.4% 11.0% 10.1% 22.4% Logistic: 3.6% 27.5% 14.6% 6.8% 3.4% 14.0% 25.3% 38.3% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% Consensus: 2.6% 15.0% 9.0% 5.1% 3.3% 8.3% 11.8% 20.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122018 KIRK 09/24/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122018 KIRK 09/24/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 29 30 31 34 41 47 48 47 44 45 47 18HR AGO 30 29 28 29 30 33 40 46 47 46 43 44 46 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 31 38 44 45 44 41 42 44 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 24 31 37 38 37 34 35 37 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT