* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIRK AL122018 09/25/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 36 37 39 44 47 49 48 44 42 39 37 V (KT) LAND 35 36 36 37 39 44 47 49 48 44 42 39 37 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 38 39 42 43 43 42 38 33 28 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 13 12 11 14 15 23 26 32 36 46 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 4 6 0 3 3 4 6 3 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 275 273 282 279 279 288 249 256 247 261 254 263 257 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 165 166 165 163 161 158 156 155 154 153 152 153 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 176 175 174 174 171 163 157 152 148 143 140 140 140 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.2 -54.3 -53.9 -54.0 -54.3 -53.9 -54.4 -53.9 -54.1 -53.8 -54.3 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 10 9 10 700-500 MB RH 62 61 59 60 63 61 62 63 66 66 64 61 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 12 13 13 11 10 9 7 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 29 27 17 10 9 1 -2 -16 3 -1 6 -5 0 200 MB DIV 58 47 39 60 70 45 59 41 61 47 63 17 9 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -9 -9 -8 -6 -4 -2 -3 0 -2 0 -3 LAND (KM) 1129 986 876 775 703 643 556 414 396 462 534 533 481 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.8 11.0 11.1 11.2 11.5 12.2 13.1 14.0 14.9 15.6 16.0 16.1 LONG(DEG W) 43.3 45.5 47.4 49.1 50.8 53.8 56.1 58.0 59.4 60.3 60.8 61.3 61.8 STM SPEED (KT) 22 20 18 17 16 13 11 9 7 5 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 8 14 29 29 25 27 28 46 44 40 41 44 46 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 23 CX,CY: -22/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 747 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 9.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 5. 13. 19. 24. 28. 33. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -3. -6. -11. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 12. 14. 13. 9. 7. 4. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 10.5 43.3 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122018 KIRK 09/25/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.69 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.13 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.30 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.34 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 188.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.73 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.9 28.4 to 141.4 0.98 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.39 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 18.9% 14.2% 10.0% 7.8% 12.4% 11.5% 20.3% Logistic: 8.0% 36.9% 20.3% 14.4% 9.6% 21.6% 29.6% 31.5% Bayesian: 1.3% 4.2% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 1.1% Consensus: 4.6% 20.0% 11.8% 8.1% 5.8% 11.4% 13.7% 17.6% DTOPS: 3.0% 11.0% 6.0% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122018 KIRK 09/25/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122018 KIRK 09/25/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 36 37 39 44 47 49 48 44 42 39 37 18HR AGO 35 34 34 35 37 42 45 47 46 42 40 37 35 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 34 39 42 44 43 39 37 34 32 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 32 35 37 36 32 30 27 25 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT