* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIRK AL122018 09/25/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 36 37 39 43 44 45 43 37 33 30 30 V (KT) LAND 35 36 36 37 39 43 44 45 43 37 33 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 38 39 40 40 39 36 31 26 22 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 16 13 12 14 13 24 25 29 32 43 44 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 4 7 2 3 2 3 7 7 1 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 281 280 285 277 279 264 255 251 257 256 261 265 263 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 168 167 165 163 159 156 156 154 155 154 154 154 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 175 175 174 174 167 161 156 150 147 144 141 141 147 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.2 -53.7 -54.0 -54.2 -53.7 -54.1 -53.7 -54.0 -53.7 -54.2 -53.6 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 10 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 61 58 60 62 61 63 63 66 68 66 65 59 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 13 13 13 11 10 10 7 7 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 29 22 17 12 10 5 -9 -7 1 5 -5 -2 0 200 MB DIV 45 42 61 67 56 38 46 93 78 62 39 8 14 700-850 TADV -5 -8 -8 -6 -4 -5 -1 0 -1 -2 -4 -1 -5 LAND (KM) 973 848 747 683 647 623 443 396 436 525 469 388 307 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.6 10.8 11.0 11.3 12.1 13.0 14.0 14.7 15.5 16.0 16.3 16.1 LONG(DEG W) 45.2 47.3 49.1 50.8 52.4 55.2 57.6 59.4 60.6 61.5 62.0 62.7 63.8 STM SPEED (KT) 21 19 17 16 15 13 11 9 6 5 3 4 6 HEAT CONTENT 15 29 28 25 26 25 43 44 41 44 47 48 50 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 22 CX,CY: -21/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 774 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 8.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 5. 13. 19. 24. 28. 33. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -3. -7. -12. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -11. -13. -15. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 9. 10. 8. 2. -2. -5. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 10.4 45.2 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122018 KIRK 09/25/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 5.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.61 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.6 0.0 to 157.3 0.16 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.82 3.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.41 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.34 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 198.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.72 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.0 28.4 to 141.4 0.97 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.39 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 21.2% 16.2% 11.4% 9.1% 13.3% 11.2% 18.3% Logistic: 15.2% 45.8% 29.0% 21.7% 15.1% 23.2% 27.9% 23.2% Bayesian: 1.3% 8.0% 1.9% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% Consensus: 7.6% 25.0% 15.7% 11.1% 8.1% 12.2% 13.1% 13.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122018 KIRK 09/25/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122018 KIRK 09/25/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 36 37 39 43 44 45 43 37 33 30 30 18HR AGO 35 34 34 35 37 41 42 43 41 35 31 28 28 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 34 38 39 40 38 32 28 25 25 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 31 32 33 31 25 21 18 18 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT