* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIRK AL122018 09/25/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 38 40 40 40 42 36 34 29 26 29 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 38 40 40 40 42 36 34 29 26 29 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 38 38 38 37 35 30 26 22 18 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 13 11 14 15 20 27 27 30 36 44 43 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 5 7 2 2 4 4 7 11 7 1 -4 -5 SHEAR DIR 274 285 270 278 277 244 257 248 260 260 272 267 283 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 167 165 161 157 155 154 154 154 155 154 154 155 158 ADJ. POT. INT. 174 174 171 165 161 157 152 147 146 142 143 145 151 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.7 -54.0 -54.4 -54.3 -53.9 -54.4 -54.0 -54.3 -54.0 -54.3 -53.9 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 58 60 61 61 59 61 64 65 67 64 59 56 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 14 14 15 12 11 11 8 8 6 4 5 850 MB ENV VOR 19 12 8 6 0 -8 -19 -2 -4 -5 -14 -1 5 200 MB DIV 41 58 66 59 40 50 57 75 53 33 4 -9 -4 700-850 TADV -8 -8 -5 -2 -3 -4 -1 -4 -3 -4 -3 -6 -5 LAND (KM) 881 787 726 685 692 588 444 452 522 484 379 287 189 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.9 11.2 11.5 11.9 12.8 13.8 14.7 15.5 16.2 16.6 16.5 16.4 LONG(DEG W) 46.8 48.6 50.3 51.9 53.4 56.0 58.3 59.8 61.0 61.7 62.6 63.7 65.3 STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 16 16 15 13 10 7 6 4 5 6 9 HEAT CONTENT 22 24 21 22 21 30 47 40 41 45 45 46 57 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 680 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 6.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 6. 13. 19. 24. 28. 32. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -9. -14. -18. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -4. -4. -9. -10. -13. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. 7. 1. -1. -6. -9. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 10.6 46.8 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122018 KIRK 09/25/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.60 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.14 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.32 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.34 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 204.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.72 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.1 28.4 to 141.4 0.94 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.38 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 18.3% 13.8% 9.7% 7.6% 11.7% 9.6% 16.0% Logistic: 5.6% 28.0% 13.4% 8.7% 6.2% 12.7% 15.6% 13.9% Bayesian: 0.6% 4.7% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 17.0% 9.2% 6.2% 4.6% 8.2% 8.5% 10.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122018 KIRK 09/25/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122018 KIRK 09/25/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 36 38 40 40 40 42 36 34 29 26 29 18HR AGO 35 34 35 37 39 39 39 41 35 33 28 25 28 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 35 35 35 37 31 29 24 21 24 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 27 27 29 23 21 16 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT