* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTY EP202018 09/25/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 48 57 67 79 101 112 118 117 115 110 102 92 V (KT) LAND 40 48 57 67 79 101 112 118 117 115 110 102 92 V (KT) LGEM 40 48 56 66 76 97 112 120 119 113 106 95 82 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 9 11 9 9 9 6 2 2 2 4 8 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -5 -5 -5 -3 1 2 2 -3 0 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 37 34 45 58 54 21 4 38 77 107 182 188 210 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.2 27.6 27.0 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 157 156 154 152 152 151 148 145 139 132 125 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.8 -52.1 -52.4 -52.6 -51.8 -52.1 -51.5 -51.4 -50.6 -51.1 -50.5 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.3 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 75 73 73 71 71 71 72 69 67 63 61 61 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 17 19 22 27 28 33 36 38 38 38 38 850 MB ENV VOR 28 34 34 31 27 40 41 45 44 52 47 47 44 200 MB DIV 99 83 75 83 84 66 35 61 29 51 26 66 37 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -1 0 0 -1 -4 -6 -5 0 -2 3 4 LAND (KM) 601 617 645 690 740 808 825 871 936 964 938 905 860 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.9 15.2 15.5 15.7 15.9 16.3 16.7 17.1 17.8 18.9 20.1 21.3 LONG(DEG W) 107.7 108.5 109.2 110.0 110.8 112.1 113.6 115.1 116.5 117.8 118.8 119.5 119.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 24 24 24 23 23 25 27 15 14 8 6 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 473 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 59.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 13. 17. 20. 22. 23. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 13. 20. 28. 32. 33. 32. 31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 10. 21. 27. 22. 11. 2. -5. -11. -15. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 17. 27. 39. 61. 72. 78. 77. 75. 70. 62. 52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.6 107.7 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202018 TWENTY 09/25/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.70 9.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 9.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.60 7.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.21 2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.62 7.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 7.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.51 4.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 107.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.76 -6.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.64 0.9 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 61% is 4.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 50% is 7.7 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 54% is 9.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 41% is 8.5 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 25.0% 61.1% 43.9% 35.2% 21.1% 50.2% 53.8% 40.7% Logistic: 54.9% 81.6% 72.2% 61.9% 72.4% 79.9% 80.5% 49.6% Bayesian: 37.4% 82.2% 78.2% 69.0% 55.8% 76.0% 62.1% 8.5% Consensus: 39.1% 75.0% 64.8% 55.4% 49.8% 68.7% 65.5% 32.9% DTOPS: 20.0% 91.0% 87.0% 60.0% 41.0% 95.0% 85.0% 25.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202018 TWENTY 09/25/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX