* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIRK AL122018 09/25/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 36 36 35 36 32 30 25 22 21 23 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 36 36 35 36 32 30 25 22 21 23 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 36 35 34 31 27 23 19 16 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 15 18 15 17 26 24 29 32 42 39 41 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 3 5 6 4 6 13 5 1 0 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 270 257 277 276 247 251 258 266 269 270 274 275 280 SST (C) 29.4 29.1 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 161 156 153 152 153 156 155 155 155 155 155 157 158 ADJ. POT. INT. 174 166 160 158 158 156 149 147 145 144 144 147 149 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -54.0 -54.4 -54.4 -53.9 -54.3 -53.7 -54.1 -53.8 -54.3 -53.9 -53.9 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 58 60 59 59 61 63 65 67 66 66 62 64 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 16 15 13 13 13 9 8 7 5 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 6 1 4 -2 0 -10 0 -3 3 -11 -12 -4 -1 200 MB DIV 61 76 62 44 49 63 82 75 54 37 14 19 27 700-850 TADV -9 -6 -3 -4 -2 -2 2 -6 0 -6 -2 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 833 782 741 742 655 428 393 422 498 412 296 170 97 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.8 12.1 12.4 12.7 13.3 14.1 14.6 15.2 15.9 16.5 16.8 17.1 LONG(DEG W) 48.6 50.4 52.1 53.8 55.3 58.0 59.7 60.9 61.9 62.7 63.6 64.9 66.4 STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 17 16 14 12 7 6 5 5 6 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 27 24 21 18 25 47 42 40 46 48 46 51 74 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 731 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 7. 14. 19. 24. 28. 32. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -8. -13. -18. -21. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -7. -9. -12. -15. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. -2. -5. -10. -13. -14. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.4 48.6 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122018 KIRK 09/25/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.53 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.15 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.33 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.37 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.34 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 207.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.71 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.1 28.4 to 141.4 0.88 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.41 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 15.4% 11.2% 7.5% 5.5% 9.5% 8.4% 0.0% Logistic: 4.6% 15.6% 7.1% 4.6% 2.4% 3.7% 6.5% 7.4% Bayesian: 0.5% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 10.8% 6.2% 4.0% 2.6% 4.5% 5.0% 2.5% DTOPS: 1.0% 7.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122018 KIRK 09/25/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122018 KIRK 09/25/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 36 36 36 35 36 32 30 25 22 21 23 18HR AGO 35 34 35 35 35 34 35 31 29 24 21 20 22 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 31 30 31 27 25 20 17 16 18 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 24 25 21 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT