* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIRK AL122018 09/26/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 37 37 35 32 27 24 20 17 18 20 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 37 37 35 32 27 24 20 17 18 20 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 36 36 34 30 25 21 17 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 14 10 13 20 26 30 35 37 37 38 40 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 2 7 8 4 10 6 8 5 2 -1 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 256 272 262 237 239 252 258 269 265 277 270 277 264 SST (C) 29.2 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 158 154 154 153 155 155 156 157 155 157 157 158 158 ADJ. POT. INT. 168 163 161 157 157 153 150 148 145 147 148 149 151 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.4 -54.4 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -53.8 -54.1 -53.8 -54.1 -53.6 -54.0 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 11 10 11 700-500 MB RH 58 58 59 61 62 64 66 67 66 64 63 64 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 17 16 16 14 11 8 8 6 5 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 0 1 -1 0 -5 -14 -8 -7 0 -14 -7 -4 14 200 MB DIV 80 72 49 67 95 55 45 32 42 21 20 10 43 700-850 TADV -5 -3 -3 -2 0 3 -3 -4 -4 -5 -3 -3 -2 LAND (KM) 766 730 731 655 537 395 404 474 431 316 222 157 161 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 12.0 12.3 12.7 13.0 13.7 14.4 15.0 15.5 15.9 16.2 16.5 16.7 LONG(DEG W) 50.3 52.1 53.8 55.3 56.6 58.9 60.5 61.8 62.8 63.9 65.0 66.6 68.3 STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 16 14 13 10 7 6 5 6 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 23 21 18 25 33 48 40 45 49 49 54 82 64 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 699 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 19. 24. 28. 32. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -5. -9. -15. -19. -21. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -12. -12. -13. -15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -6. -10. -11. -15. -18. -19. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -8. -11. -15. -18. -17. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.6 50.3 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122018 KIRK 09/26/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.58 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.15 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.37 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.34 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 206.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.71 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.2 28.4 to 141.4 0.87 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.47 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 17.4% 13.1% 8.8% 6.8% 10.8% 9.1% 0.0% Logistic: 6.0% 22.1% 10.8% 8.3% 4.5% 6.1% 7.8% 7.9% Bayesian: 0.8% 2.9% 0.6% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 14.1% 8.1% 5.7% 3.8% 5.7% 5.7% 2.6% DTOPS: 2.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122018 KIRK 09/26/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122018 KIRK 09/26/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 37 37 37 35 32 27 24 20 17 18 20 18HR AGO 35 34 35 35 35 33 30 25 22 18 15 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 31 29 26 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 23 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT