* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSA EP202018 09/26/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 62 72 81 91 107 115 119 116 108 100 92 80 V (KT) LAND 55 62 72 81 91 107 115 119 116 108 100 92 80 V (KT) LGEM 55 63 72 80 88 101 109 114 113 104 94 83 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 7 8 4 10 4 4 1 5 9 10 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -2 -1 4 4 -2 -2 -2 -3 0 -1 4 SHEAR DIR 54 54 46 50 19 24 16 61 184 312 215 231 202 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.0 27.5 26.9 26.3 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 154 153 153 151 150 148 143 137 131 125 114 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 -51.9 -51.7 -52.1 -51.6 -51.6 -50.7 -50.9 -50.3 -51.1 -50.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 71 71 71 72 71 71 68 66 62 57 57 50 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 25 26 28 31 32 37 39 39 40 40 37 850 MB ENV VOR 39 36 35 40 41 46 50 56 71 65 64 62 72 200 MB DIV 89 78 66 68 42 28 22 42 62 36 105 62 29 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -2 -4 -8 -5 -6 0 1 4 4 2 LAND (KM) 668 708 752 802 804 845 928 1013 1039 1036 999 955 860 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.3 15.5 15.8 16.0 16.3 16.5 16.9 17.6 18.5 19.7 20.9 22.2 LONG(DEG W) 109.3 110.1 110.8 111.6 112.3 114.0 115.7 117.3 118.7 119.7 120.3 120.7 120.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 23 23 23 25 25 26 15 10 8 8 4 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 443 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 53.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 3. 5. 8. 11. 12. 19. 25. 27. 28. 27. 23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 9. 19. 24. 19. 9. 2. -5. -9. -13. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 17. 26. 36. 52. 60. 64. 61. 53. 45. 37. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 15.0 109.3 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202018 ROSA 09/26/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.54 8.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 10.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.64 9.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.21 2.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.54 6.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 7.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.94 9.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 185.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.67 -5.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.72 1.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 59% is 4.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 50% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 7.2 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 6.6 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 44% is 6.7 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 25.2% 59.0% 49.8% 43.0% 26.4% 43.5% 28.0% 11.3% Logistic: 15.1% 36.3% 23.9% 16.9% 9.9% 32.2% 38.3% 11.1% Bayesian: 12.2% 56.8% 46.8% 33.7% 11.5% 20.2% 11.8% 0.6% Consensus: 17.5% 50.7% 40.2% 31.2% 15.9% 32.0% 26.0% 7.7% DTOPS: 63.0% 96.0% 93.0% 75.0% 73.0% 92.0% 69.0% 11.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202018 ROSA 09/26/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX