* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIRK AL122018 09/26/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 43 42 41 36 34 28 23 19 18 19 23 V (KT) LAND 40 42 43 42 41 36 34 28 23 19 18 19 23 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 43 44 43 40 35 29 24 20 17 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 16 22 27 34 34 36 35 33 35 30 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 10 5 3 5 3 5 5 5 1 1 0 4 SHEAR DIR 272 222 235 258 266 267 272 262 270 258 263 247 257 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 155 154 156 159 159 159 159 161 160 159 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 159 159 158 156 157 158 158 157 156 157 156 156 156 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -53.9 -54.0 -53.6 -53.9 -53.5 -53.9 -53.6 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 11 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 57 59 60 61 64 66 66 66 69 70 75 75 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 17 15 14 12 12 9 8 6 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 2 -6 -17 -17 -8 -4 0 6 15 19 46 49 200 MB DIV 59 70 81 61 38 57 47 63 35 62 43 75 25 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -1 1 4 0 -6 -5 -6 -2 1 -2 -5 LAND (KM) 703 672 563 466 399 400 433 279 263 217 232 267 190 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.4 12.7 13.2 13.6 14.4 15.0 15.5 15.8 15.9 15.8 15.8 16.0 LONG(DEG W) 53.4 54.8 56.2 57.4 58.7 61.0 63.3 65.7 68.1 70.4 72.5 74.8 77.0 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 13 12 12 12 12 12 11 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 20 23 31 42 49 41 49 58 57 56 67 83 52 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 737 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 23. 26. 31. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -6. -10. -14. -18. -21. -21. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -15. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -11. -14. -18. -19. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 2. 1. -4. -6. -12. -17. -21. -22. -21. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 12.0 53.4 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122018 KIRK 09/26/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 5.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.50 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.21 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.32 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.47 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 245.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.67 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.9 28.4 to 141.4 0.79 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.42 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 19.1% 14.6% 10.4% 8.2% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.8% 19.7% 9.0% 7.9% 5.0% 9.6% 6.8% 10.0% Bayesian: 1.6% 8.7% 1.2% 0.1% 0.1% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.4% 15.9% 8.3% 6.1% 4.4% 7.5% 2.3% 3.3% DTOPS: 3.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122018 KIRK 09/26/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122018 KIRK 09/26/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 42 43 42 41 36 34 28 23 19 18 19 23 18HR AGO 40 39 40 39 38 33 31 25 20 16 15 16 20 12HR AGO 40 37 36 35 34 29 27 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 29 24 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT