* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIRK AL122018 09/26/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 52 50 48 39 32 27 21 17 17 18 23 V (KT) LAND 50 52 52 50 48 39 32 27 21 17 17 18 23 V (KT) LGEM 50 53 54 54 52 45 37 30 24 20 16 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 17 23 29 31 38 38 37 33 38 26 32 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 9 6 4 2 7 5 4 3 0 0 1 0 SHEAR DIR 240 244 259 265 269 271 269 262 261 252 252 243 249 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 155 156 158 159 159 157 159 160 158 159 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 158 158 157 158 157 157 156 154 154 154 151 154 158 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.0 -54.3 -54.3 -53.8 -54.0 -53.6 -53.9 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -54.0 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 12 11 12 11 11 10 11 11 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 58 60 60 63 65 66 66 69 69 72 74 74 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 15 15 14 11 9 8 6 4 4 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -9 -20 -23 -8 -14 -11 11 2 15 23 42 52 200 MB DIV 66 74 63 37 52 71 49 36 57 61 78 45 38 700-850 TADV -7 -3 2 1 2 -6 -5 -7 -4 1 -1 0 -3 LAND (KM) 672 559 460 410 409 489 281 190 224 156 213 213 168 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 13.0 13.4 13.9 14.4 15.1 15.8 16.2 16.2 16.2 16.2 16.2 16.2 LONG(DEG W) 55.0 56.3 57.7 58.9 60.2 62.3 64.6 67.0 69.4 71.4 73.1 75.1 77.4 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 13 12 12 11 12 11 9 9 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 24 32 44 46 40 47 51 81 58 58 74 86 57 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 786 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 13. 16. 20. 22. 25. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -13. -17. -19. -23. -24. -23. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -16. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -6. -9. -11. -15. -19. -21. -23. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 0. -2. -11. -18. -23. -29. -33. -33. -32. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 12.5 55.0 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122018 KIRK 09/26/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.68 5.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.32 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.24 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.14 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.74 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 292.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.63 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.6 28.4 to 141.4 0.70 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.41 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 16.6% 12.1% 9.2% 7.1% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 5.4% 1.7% 1.8% 1.1% 3.2% 3.5% 4.1% Bayesian: 2.9% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 7.8% 4.7% 3.7% 2.7% 4.4% 1.2% 1.4% DTOPS: 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122018 KIRK 09/26/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122018 KIRK 09/26/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 52 52 50 48 39 32 27 21 17 17 18 23 18HR AGO 50 49 49 47 45 36 29 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 44 42 33 26 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 38 29 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT