* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIRK AL122018 09/27/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 39 34 30 25 22 20 17 17 17 20 23 V (KT) LAND 45 42 39 34 30 25 22 20 17 17 17 20 23 V (KT) LGEM 45 43 40 37 34 29 24 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 25 28 35 38 36 37 34 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 7 7 6 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 257 258 258 259 266 262 257 257 252 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 157 159 159 159 157 159 161 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 157 156 156 159 158 156 153 154 156 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.2 -54.0 -54.0 -54.3 -53.7 -53.8 -53.5 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 11 11 10 11 10 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 66 68 66 65 63 65 63 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 14 14 12 10 10 9 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -12 1 -4 -13 6 23 13 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 67 68 66 46 57 62 41 56 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 7 5 -5 -2 1 -6 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 454 398 382 411 467 301 222 226 157 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.7 14.1 14.5 14.9 15.5 15.9 16.1 16.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 57.7 58.9 60.0 61.1 62.3 64.8 66.9 69.1 71.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 12 12 11 11 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 44 48 41 41 47 51 75 56 56 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 758 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 33.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 17. 21. 24. 28. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -5. -7. -11. -15. -19. -23. -26. -28. -28. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -11. -12. -14. -15. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -11. -14. -16. -17. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -11. -15. -20. -22. -25. -28. -28. -28. -25. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 13.3 57.7 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122018 KIRK 09/27/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.51 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.02 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.28 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.10 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.06 0.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.60 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 214.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.71 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.3 28.4 to 141.4 0.74 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.42 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 6.9% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.8% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.4% 0.5% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 2.6% 1.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122018 KIRK 09/27/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122018 KIRK 09/27/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 42 39 34 30 25 22 20 17 17 17 20 23 18HR AGO 45 44 41 36 32 27 24 22 19 19 19 22 25 12HR AGO 45 42 41 36 32 27 24 22 19 19 19 22 25 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 31 26 23 21 18 18 18 21 24 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT