* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIRK AL122018 09/27/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 38 34 32 26 21 18 17 16 16 19 21 V (KT) LAND 45 42 38 34 32 26 21 18 17 16 16 19 21 V (KT) LGEM 45 43 41 37 34 29 24 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 29 36 37 35 29 36 30 34 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 4 5 5 2 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 261 261 269 272 265 258 261 255 252 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 159 159 159 159 157 159 161 158 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 157 158 156 156 156 154 155 156 153 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -54.2 -54.3 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 9 10 9 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 67 66 65 66 67 67 70 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 10 10 10 8 6 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -8 -17 -18 -6 8 10 22 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 56 58 61 45 73 54 77 59 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 -4 -4 -2 -1 -6 -4 2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 379 389 434 452 360 236 234 175 234 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.3 14.6 14.9 15.2 15.8 16.0 16.1 16.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 59.8 61.0 62.1 63.1 64.2 66.5 68.8 70.9 73.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 42 38 42 46 43 68 55 51 67 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 727 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 17. 21. 24. 28. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -15. -19. -21. -24. -26. -26. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -3. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -15. -17. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -11. -13. -19. -24. -27. -28. -29. -29. -26. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.0 59.8 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122018 KIRK 09/27/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.27 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.36 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.05 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.60 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 190.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.73 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.8 28.4 to 141.4 0.74 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.41 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.4% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122018 KIRK 09/27/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122018 KIRK 09/27/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 42 38 34 32 26 21 18 17 16 16 19 21 18HR AGO 45 44 40 36 34 28 23 20 19 18 18 21 23 12HR AGO 45 42 41 37 35 29 24 21 20 19 19 22 24 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 33 27 22 19 18 17 17 20 22 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT