* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSA EP202018 09/28/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 98 96 95 93 87 75 62 48 32 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 105 98 96 95 93 87 75 62 48 30 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 105 98 93 89 86 76 64 50 38 25 26 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 8 5 3 4 10 20 24 30 37 53 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -8 -6 -2 -2 -4 1 4 1 -2 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 359 33 7 293 223 215 221 233 239 240 223 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.2 25.9 24.4 23.7 22.6 23.0 24.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 142 140 136 122 107 99 89 94 105 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.2 -51.7 -51.8 -51.6 -51.7 -51.8 -51.5 -51.7 -51.5 -51.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.2 0.7 1.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 2 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 66 64 63 62 62 57 51 53 56 56 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 34 32 36 36 36 35 34 30 25 18 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 34 23 15 21 28 32 7 -7 3 32 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 40 36 19 47 38 11 27 55 61 91 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -5 -4 0 4 7 10 0 -2 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 995 963 935 880 832 726 540 349 177 -26 -173 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.4 18.0 18.5 19.4 20.2 22.1 24.1 25.9 27.7 30.2 33.2 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.7 118.0 118.3 118.5 118.7 118.8 118.5 117.8 116.8 115.6 114.3 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 9 9 10 10 10 12 14 16 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 10 8 2 0 0 0 0 0 3 6 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -9. -18. -28. -37. -44. -47. -50. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -14. -15. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -6. -8. -8. -8. -6. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -5. -13. -23. -37. -36. -35. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -9. -10. -12. -18. -30. -43. -57. -73. -92. -91. -93. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 17.4 117.7 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202018 ROSA 09/28/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.83 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.04 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 473.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.31 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.34 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.4% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202018 ROSA 09/28/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX