* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WALAKA CP012018 09/29/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 41 48 58 70 97 111 111 103 96 92 84 76 V (KT) LAND 35 41 48 58 70 97 111 111 103 96 92 84 76 V (KT) LGEM 35 41 47 53 62 85 111 126 129 124 112 87 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 8 6 4 3 11 9 10 15 24 23 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -6 -6 -6 -5 -7 -4 -5 2 12 12 5 SHEAR DIR 278 285 285 300 314 287 259 285 269 256 257 236 189 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.2 28.8 29.1 28.9 27.9 26.7 24.1 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 162 163 164 163 163 158 153 154 153 147 138 108 104 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.8 -52.9 -53.4 -53.5 -52.4 -52.7 -52.0 -52.5 -52.0 -51.5 -50.5 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.3 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 6 4 3 700-500 MB RH 67 68 70 70 69 70 73 73 71 65 53 55 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 17 18 21 27 28 29 32 35 38 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 50 58 65 74 84 84 94 107 126 122 102 96 200 MB DIV 51 57 83 97 85 139 134 106 125 106 106 0 18 700-850 TADV -6 -9 -8 -4 -2 2 3 6 11 32 82 60 -4 LAND (KM) 883 938 1003 1064 1133 1191 1284 1349 1289 1019 761 1258 1553 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.6 11.8 12.2 12.7 13.9 15.0 15.9 17.0 19.4 24.6 30.9 32.0 LONG(DEG W) 158.6 160.0 161.4 162.8 164.3 167.2 169.5 170.9 170.9 169.2 166.7 167.7 170.8 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 15 16 14 11 6 9 21 33 24 11 HEAT CONTENT 17 33 44 41 45 48 59 79 80 24 5 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 82.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 8. 14. 20. 24. 27. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 1. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -12. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 6. 12. 13. 17. 23. 29. 33. 33. 32. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 9. 15. 30. 39. 32. 15. 3. -7. -15. -22. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 23. 35. 62. 76. 76. 68. 61. 57. 49. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.5 158.6 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012018 WALAKA 09/29/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.79 10.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 7.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.60 7.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.33 3.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.57 6.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.86 7.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 119.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.75 -5.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.46 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 58% is 4.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 58% is 8.9 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 68% is 11.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 61% is 12.8 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 19.3% 57.8% 39.7% 29.2% 20.8% 57.7% 68.2% 61.3% Logistic: 47.8% 86.0% 78.0% 68.8% 84.1% 81.2% 86.6% 62.9% Bayesian: 19.5% 92.4% 85.5% 75.2% 72.7% 93.2% 86.9% 85.7% Consensus: 28.9% 78.7% 67.7% 57.7% 59.2% 77.4% 80.5% 70.0% DTOPS: 16.0% 81.0% 74.0% 47.0% 29.0% 90.0% 92.0% 98.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012018 WALAKA 09/29/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX