* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WALAKA CP012018 09/30/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 41 49 59 70 90 105 110 105 99 91 82 73 V (KT) LAND 35 41 49 59 70 90 105 110 105 99 91 82 73 V (KT) LGEM 35 41 47 54 62 82 107 123 125 112 96 84 73 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 6 11 7 0 4 9 9 16 13 24 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -7 -9 -7 -4 -1 -3 0 9 10 8 -2 SHEAR DIR 289 273 319 317 338 83 311 294 248 253 193 232 219 SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.5 29.7 29.9 29.4 28.9 28.7 28.6 27.7 27.3 26.8 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 163 164 161 163 165 159 153 151 151 142 138 133 125 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -53.1 -53.1 -52.3 -52.8 -52.1 -52.2 -51.5 -51.2 -50.6 -50.3 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 65 67 70 69 70 71 73 73 70 61 53 52 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 19 21 24 25 25 28 32 34 35 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 63 79 83 83 78 67 65 89 116 136 153 112 200 MB DIV 71 109 113 86 67 77 132 73 140 84 87 31 21 700-850 TADV -8 -6 -4 -1 0 1 7 14 20 48 -9 -7 -5 LAND (KM) 953 1028 1116 1192 1251 1291 1310 1249 1103 950 846 893 1074 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.5 11.5 11.8 12.0 12.9 13.9 15.4 17.5 20.0 22.7 25.5 28.3 LONG(DEG W) 159.9 161.3 162.7 164.0 165.3 167.4 168.8 169.4 169.2 168.7 168.0 167.7 167.9 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 13 13 12 9 8 9 12 13 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 31 43 38 43 50 51 49 61 53 18 12 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 68.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 24. 26. 28. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -7. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 5. 7. 8. 10. 17. 22. 26. 26. 25. 25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 7. 12. 25. 32. 26. 13. 2. -6. -13. -18. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 14. 24. 35. 55. 70. 75. 70. 64. 56. 47. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.4 159.9 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012018 WALAKA 09/30/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.80 13.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 9.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.64 9.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.37 4.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.65 8.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.88 9.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 3.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 124.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.74 -7.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.57 0.9 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 66% is 5.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 54% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 7.2 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 9.1 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 65% is 10.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 75% is 12.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 62% is 12.9 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 25.6% 66.5% 54.1% 43.4% 36.3% 65.4% 75.3% 61.9% Logistic: 66.0% 85.7% 82.7% 74.5% 88.3% 86.7% 87.3% 65.1% Bayesian: 43.0% 93.1% 90.7% 89.0% 70.1% 95.6% 91.3% 75.8% Consensus: 44.9% 81.8% 75.8% 69.0% 64.9% 82.6% 84.6% 67.6% DTOPS: 9.0% 89.0% 80.0% 37.0% 26.0% 93.0% 89.0% 96.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012018 WALAKA 09/30/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX