* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WALAKA CP012018 09/30/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 46 54 66 86 103 107 104 93 87 79 67 V (KT) LAND 35 39 46 54 66 86 103 107 104 93 87 79 67 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 41 45 51 68 92 112 117 108 96 79 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 11 6 1 6 8 6 8 19 24 9 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -7 -8 -8 -5 -4 -3 -2 3 12 6 3 2 SHEAR DIR 271 293 333 337 88 312 287 274 270 251 250 238 277 SST (C) 29.8 29.6 29.7 29.9 29.7 29.2 28.9 28.9 28.5 27.6 27.0 25.9 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 164 162 163 165 162 156 153 153 151 143 137 125 104 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.4 -53.2 -52.4 -52.6 -53.0 -52.2 -52.3 -51.5 -51.2 -50.4 -50.7 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.9 1.9 1.1 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 9 10 10 10 9 8 6 6 4 3 700-500 MB RH 67 69 69 72 71 73 73 71 68 55 49 46 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 21 25 24 25 26 30 33 35 35 37 36 30 850 MB ENV VOR 60 69 79 80 82 70 63 70 105 116 156 142 103 200 MB DIV 102 110 84 79 90 73 132 120 123 96 35 -9 15 700-850 TADV -5 -3 0 0 0 2 7 10 23 39 30 15 5 LAND (KM) 1021 1102 1196 1254 1310 1345 1311 1238 1097 944 900 1110 1430 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.8 11.9 12.1 12.2 13.0 14.4 16.1 18.2 21.2 25.0 28.6 31.9 LONG(DEG W) 161.4 162.8 164.2 165.5 166.7 168.3 169.3 169.8 169.5 168.9 168.0 168.1 169.1 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 13 12 10 8 9 10 13 17 19 18 17 HEAT CONTENT 43 39 45 51 53 46 54 70 44 18 5 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 72.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 24. 26. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 5. 2. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -9. -9. -8. -5. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 11. 16. 22. 22. 26. 23. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 6. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 8. 13. 26. 34. 27. 13. 3. -6. -13. -19. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 11. 19. 31. 51. 68. 72. 69. 58. 52. 44. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.6 161.4 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012018 WALAKA 09/30/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.78 10.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.76 9.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 46.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.42 4.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 93.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.67 7.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 6.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 115.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.75 -5.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.51 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 56% is 4.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 52% is 8.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 59% is 10.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 56% is 11.7 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.7% 56.1% 41.6% 31.7% 23.2% 52.2% 59.3% 56.0% Logistic: 35.8% 79.5% 74.4% 62.5% 77.8% 73.4% 80.6% 41.0% Bayesian: 5.9% 64.7% 60.0% 45.6% 38.7% 69.9% 70.7% 73.0% Consensus: 19.8% 66.8% 58.6% 46.6% 46.6% 65.2% 70.2% 56.7% DTOPS: 12.0% 89.0% 76.0% 30.0% 17.0% 84.0% 84.0% 94.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012018 WALAKA 09/30/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX