* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WALAKA CP012018 09/30/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 52 61 71 85 110 122 125 114 102 89 80 71 V (KT) LAND 45 52 61 71 85 110 122 125 114 102 89 80 71 V (KT) LGEM 45 52 59 68 78 102 120 129 123 104 87 74 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 4 1 2 4 3 5 19 27 15 7 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -7 -5 -5 -5 0 2 1 5 16 8 4 2 SHEAR DIR 272 304 312 249 287 317 277 248 258 249 223 278 323 SST (C) 29.9 30.2 30.0 30.0 29.8 29.4 29.0 28.8 28.5 27.2 26.1 25.5 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 165 168 166 165 163 158 154 153 151 139 127 119 102 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.0 -52.0 -51.3 -51.2 -50.4 -50.0 -50.7 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 10 10 10 9 8 6 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 70 68 69 69 70 72 73 72 64 55 57 58 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 24 25 25 29 33 34 38 38 38 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 72 79 83 86 83 76 68 90 104 133 155 111 91 200 MB DIV 107 99 96 107 90 139 117 163 124 67 46 41 35 700-850 TADV -3 -1 0 2 3 8 13 19 41 66 -15 -11 1 LAND (KM) 1120 1215 1286 1316 1355 1380 1340 1224 1050 876 887 1105 1302 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 11.8 11.8 12.1 12.4 13.2 14.8 16.8 19.1 22.4 26.4 29.5 31.2 LONG(DEG W) 163.0 164.3 165.6 166.7 167.7 169.0 170.0 170.1 169.4 168.3 167.1 167.1 168.0 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 11 9 8 9 11 15 19 18 12 9 HEAT CONTENT 38 44 50 52 51 45 50 68 32 12 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 82.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 11. 15. 18. 18. 19. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 4. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -12. -11. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 8. 11. 11. 18. 22. 24. 24. 23. 23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 9. 15. 30. 39. 32. 15. 3. -7. -15. -22. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 16. 26. 40. 65. 77. 80. 69. 57. 44. 35. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 11.7 163.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012018 WALAKA 09/30/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.68 16.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 13.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.84 18.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 47.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.43 7.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.70 14.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.96 15.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.65 10.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 150.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.71 -9.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.56 1.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 40% is 6.6 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 93% is 7.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 90% is 11.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 75% is 12.5 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 70% is 17.5 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 85% is 13.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 96% is 16.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 60% is 12.5 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 40.4% 93.2% 89.8% 75.3% 70.0% 85.4% 96.0% 60.0% Logistic: 83.0% 95.7% 95.2% 93.2% 96.8% 94.3% 78.2% 25.9% Bayesian: 63.2% 96.1% 96.9% 96.6% 97.8% 96.4% 92.0% 54.6% Consensus: 62.2% 95.0% 94.0% 88.4% 88.2% 92.0% 88.7% 46.8% DTOPS: 26.0% 95.0% 90.0% 60.0% 54.0% 96.0% 87.0% 46.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012018 WALAKA 09/30/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX