* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSA EP202018 09/30/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 56 49 40 32 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 56 49 40 32 19 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 65 57 49 42 36 27 23 25 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 18 23 30 30 33 41 60 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 6 7 2 -4 -1 0 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 228 222 217 230 243 244 240 225 227 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.7 24.9 24.3 23.5 22.8 20.5 31.3 31.3 20.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 110 112 106 97 90 67 174 175 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 2 2 3 4 9 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 56 53 51 50 47 54 59 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 31 29 28 26 23 17 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 16 10 12 13 -5 -7 16 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 51 48 39 33 34 51 57 79 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 13 8 5 8 1 -9 3 18 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 576 472 370 266 173 16 -69 -484 -914 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.9 24.8 25.7 26.6 27.4 29.4 32.0 35.4 39.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.8 118.4 117.9 117.3 116.7 115.4 113.7 111.8 110.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 13 17 20 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 41 6 3 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 10 CX,CY: 1/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 708 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -4. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -14. -26. -44. -53. -60. -60. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 13. 15. 16. 16. 16. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -9. -9. -8. -6. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 8. 7. 7. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -4. -7. -13. -20. -28. -34. -36. -36. -35. -34. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -9. -16. -25. -33. -46. -50. -59. -77. -85. -89. -87. -89. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 23.9 118.8 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202018 ROSA 09/30/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.39 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.89 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 361.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.45 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.71 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.80 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.2 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202018 ROSA 09/30/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX