* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WALAKA CP012018 09/30/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 65 76 89 100 123 136 135 121 105 85 72 58 V (KT) LAND 55 65 76 89 100 123 136 135 121 105 85 72 58 V (KT) LGEM 55 67 79 91 104 125 136 138 121 98 74 59 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 5 3 2 5 6 8 8 26 39 17 3 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -3 -5 -2 0 0 4 13 8 0 -2 2 SHEAR DIR 317 323 304 259 309 305 259 258 252 247 205 304 301 SST (C) 30.2 30.0 30.0 29.8 29.5 29.0 29.0 28.7 27.1 26.9 26.0 24.6 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 168 165 165 163 159 154 155 153 138 136 125 106 106 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 -52.0 -52.1 -51.4 -51.1 -50.0 -50.5 -50.8 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 10 10 11 9 8 6 6 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 68 68 70 71 73 71 72 67 56 53 59 54 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 24 25 29 28 32 36 39 40 39 34 30 27 850 MB ENV VOR 80 82 82 81 81 73 72 103 106 154 138 113 82 200 MB DIV 99 94 106 104 136 120 115 147 125 18 19 47 24 700-850 TADV -1 0 2 1 4 10 15 23 66 87 29 0 15 LAND (KM) 1241 1280 1328 1360 1398 1366 1307 1166 940 917 1109 1264 1277 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.0 12.2 12.5 12.8 14.2 16.0 18.4 21.6 25.2 28.8 30.3 29.9 LONG(DEG W) 164.9 166.0 167.0 167.9 168.8 169.8 170.5 170.3 168.9 168.1 167.9 168.5 169.1 STM SPEED (KT) 13 10 10 9 8 9 11 14 18 18 13 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 48 52 52 50 45 46 65 48 15 4 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 82.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 4. -1. -5. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -9. -8. -6. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 9. 9. 7. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 4. 5. 8. 12. 18. 22. 22. 16. 10. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 9. 15. 30. 39. 32. 15. 3. -7. -15. -22. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 10. 21. 34. 45. 68. 81. 80. 66. 50. 30. 17. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 11.9 164.9 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012018 WALAKA 09/30/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.57 13.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 18.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.86 19.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 49.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.45 8.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 107.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.74 15.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.90 14.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.94 15.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 173.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.68 -9.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.55 1.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 80% is 13.1 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 100% is 8.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 99% is 11.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 98% is 16.7 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 92% is 23.1 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 92% is 14.2 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 86% is 14.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 44% is 9.2 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 79.6% 100.0% 99.0% 98.0% 92.4% 92.4% 86.4% 44.1% Logistic: 93.0% 96.5% 96.5% 95.4% 97.0% 95.1% 80.2% 12.2% Bayesian: 92.6% 96.6% 98.5% 99.0% 97.9% 97.3% 87.3% 13.8% Consensus: 88.4% 97.7% 98.0% 97.5% 95.8% 94.9% 84.6% 23.4% DTOPS: 72.0% 99.0% 99.0% 94.0% 94.0% 99.0% 87.0% 59.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012018 WALAKA 09/30/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX