* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WALAKA CP012018 10/01/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 75 87 99 109 131 140 134 120 98 82 63 49 V (KT) LAND 65 75 87 99 109 131 140 134 120 98 82 63 49 V (KT) LGEM 65 78 90 101 111 125 132 128 108 88 70 58 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 0 4 8 6 6 11 18 26 37 7 15 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -6 -3 0 0 -2 7 13 3 0 0 10 SHEAR DIR 353 315 276 293 275 250 229 229 253 261 227 325 263 SST (C) 29.9 30.0 29.8 29.6 29.3 29.0 28.8 27.5 27.3 26.5 25.8 24.3 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 163 160 157 155 154 141 139 130 122 105 99 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -52.0 -52.2 -51.4 -51.4 -50.5 -50.5 -50.7 -51.3 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.8 1.7 1.2 1.1 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 10 10 10 10 8 6 6 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 67 68 72 71 72 71 70 63 56 51 53 55 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 26 28 30 30 35 37 38 41 38 35 30 26 850 MB ENV VOR 85 83 82 79 77 65 82 100 124 157 143 109 97 200 MB DIV 104 107 106 116 127 108 153 123 100 7 -5 12 30 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 4 9 10 18 28 66 64 14 6 9 LAND (KM) 1302 1334 1375 1379 1387 1337 1216 1066 962 989 1147 1269 1323 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.1 12.4 12.9 13.4 15.1 17.5 20.2 23.1 26.0 28.9 30.8 31.8 LONG(DEG W) 165.9 167.0 168.0 168.7 169.3 170.2 170.4 169.9 169.1 168.5 168.3 168.0 167.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 9 8 9 10 13 14 15 15 12 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 51 52 50 46 44 53 70 18 11 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 82.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 2. 1. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. -3. -4. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -8. -6. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 5. 10. 12. 16. 22. 19. 15. 8. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 9. 15. 30. 39. 32. 15. 3. -7. -15. -22. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 10. 22. 34. 44. 66. 75. 69. 55. 33. 17. -2. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 11.8 165.9 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012018 WALAKA 10/01/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.47 11.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 17.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.85 18.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 48.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.45 7.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 112.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.77 15.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 13.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.89 14.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 217.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.63 -8.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.54 1.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 93% is 15.2 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 94% is 7.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 93% is 11.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 92% is 15.5 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 86% is 21.5 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 78% is 12.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 69% is 11.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 92.9% 93.6% 92.6% 91.6% 86.1% 78.4% 68.9% 12.4% Logistic: 85.0% 88.6% 89.1% 85.4% 87.9% 86.7% 74.1% 2.5% Bayesian: 92.1% 94.7% 98.3% 98.0% 86.9% 95.6% 61.3% 2.2% Consensus: 90.0% 92.3% 93.4% 91.7% 87.0% 86.9% 68.1% 5.7% DTOPS: 91.0% 99.0% 99.0% 94.0% 94.0% 97.0% 71.0% 20.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012018 WALAKA 10/01/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX