* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WALAKA CP012018 10/01/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 104 114 123 128 134 130 122 110 103 88 76 69 V (KT) LAND 90 104 114 123 128 134 130 122 110 103 88 76 69 V (KT) LGEM 90 105 117 124 127 126 119 105 90 74 60 50 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 3 7 6 4 12 12 24 28 25 4 6 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -6 -4 -2 0 -3 0 9 6 5 9 1 11 SHEAR DIR 270 292 307 284 291 270 251 251 266 247 263 294 221 SST (C) 30.0 29.9 29.6 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.7 27.2 27.1 26.2 25.2 23.9 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 165 164 160 157 155 155 153 137 136 127 116 101 99 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -51.5 -51.4 -50.6 -51.0 -51.1 -52.0 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.5 1.2 0.9 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 11 10 8 6 5 4 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 71 71 73 73 73 72 68 60 51 49 54 54 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 29 29 32 33 37 39 41 41 43 38 34 32 850 MB ENV VOR 89 87 86 80 80 72 86 103 158 160 121 116 113 200 MB DIV 125 130 138 129 106 140 139 126 48 10 2 58 55 700-850 TADV 2 2 4 7 8 15 19 34 49 38 9 17 19 LAND (KM) 1365 1385 1413 1411 1412 1328 1132 975 927 1012 1197 1304 1366 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.3 12.7 13.3 13.8 15.8 18.5 21.2 24.0 26.8 29.5 31.3 32.7 LONG(DEG W) 167.0 168.0 168.9 169.5 170.0 170.6 170.0 169.2 168.6 168.3 168.4 167.9 166.8 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 8 8 12 14 14 14 14 11 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 52 50 45 43 45 62 44 16 8 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 33.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -2. -8. -13. -17. -21. -24. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. -2. -4. -3. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -9. -8. -6. -4. -3. -1. PERSISTENCE 9. 13. 14. 13. 9. 6. 2. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 6. 8. 12. 13. 18. 21. 26. 18. 12. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 2. 3. 5. 11. 14. 11. 5. 1. -3. -5. -7. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 14. 24. 33. 38. 44. 40. 32. 20. 13. -2. -14. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 11.8 167.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012018 WALAKA 10/01/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.23 5.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 35.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.86 23.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.84 17.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 47.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.43 7.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 125.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.84 15.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.90 14.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.56 8.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 265.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.57 -7.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.63 1.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 100% is 16.4 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 89% is 6.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 88% is 11.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 87% is 15.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 85% is 21.3 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 68% is 10.4 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 100.0% 88.6% 87.6% 86.6% 85.3% 67.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 91.4% 88.5% 90.7% 88.1% 91.4% 78.1% 61.3% 0.7% Bayesian: 92.9% 91.2% 96.0% 95.0% 80.2% 33.3% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 94.8% 89.4% 91.5% 89.9% 85.6% 59.8% 20.5% 0.2% DTOPS: 94.0% 97.0% 96.0% 87.0% 83.0% 52.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012018 WALAKA 10/01/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX