* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WALAKA CP012018 10/01/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 117 125 127 131 126 115 106 99 92 80 71 66 V (KT) LAND 105 117 125 127 131 126 115 106 99 92 80 71 66 V (KT) LGEM 105 118 126 131 130 122 111 95 78 64 53 47 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 6 3 4 4 8 16 25 29 15 13 16 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -2 0 -2 0 3 10 9 1 0 4 12 SHEAR DIR 295 320 254 249 278 282 254 263 253 227 319 288 241 SST (C) 30.1 30.2 30.1 29.8 29.5 29.4 29.3 27.3 26.9 26.2 26.0 25.0 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 166 167 165 162 159 159 160 140 135 126 122 113 105 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 -51.1 -51.2 -50.7 -50.5 -50.6 -51.4 -52.1 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.6 1.1 1.7 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 11 9 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 70 73 73 73 72 74 68 58 52 56 51 61 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 31 34 33 37 38 40 41 41 40 34 31 28 850 MB ENV VOR 91 92 87 83 78 89 88 105 161 155 112 106 81 200 MB DIV 141 138 123 93 114 175 139 91 41 9 39 47 49 700-850 TADV 2 5 7 9 10 17 24 41 39 21 0 17 37 LAND (KM) 1395 1419 1450 1427 1408 1334 1146 931 871 980 1131 1172 1188 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.5 12.9 13.6 14.2 16.0 18.4 21.5 25.0 27.6 29.1 30.4 31.7 LONG(DEG W) 167.9 168.8 169.6 170.0 170.3 170.8 170.1 168.8 167.7 167.3 167.9 167.0 165.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 7 8 11 15 17 15 10 7 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 46 40 40 44 50 69 49 15 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 3.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. -1. -6. -15. -22. -29. -34. -37. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -1. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -10. -8. -6. -5. -4. -1. PERSISTENCE 10. 13. 13. 12. 8. 4. 0. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 3. 3. 7. 8. 9. 12. 14. 14. 6. 2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 7. 10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 12. 20. 22. 26. 21. 10. 1. -6. -13. -25. -34. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 12.1 167.9 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012018 WALAKA 10/01/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.12 2.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 35.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.86 19.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.87 15.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.40 5.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 121.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.82 13.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 10.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 4.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 296.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.53 -5.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.60 1.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 80% is 13.1 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 70% is 5.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 69% is 9.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 69% is 11.5 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 64% is 16.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 51% is 7.9 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 80.1% 70.4% 69.4% 68.9% 64.0% 51.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 90.2% 84.9% 87.7% 85.0% 87.1% 60.0% 17.2% 0.2% Bayesian: 92.3% 90.5% 96.2% 94.5% 79.2% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 87.5% 81.9% 84.4% 82.8% 76.8% 39.6% 5.7% 0.1% DTOPS: 84.0% 71.0% 57.0% 51.0% 39.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012018 WALAKA 10/01/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX