* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSA EP202018 10/01/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 34 27 24 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 34 27 26 23 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 40 33 28 23 22 24 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 31 34 33 35 37 52 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -3 -3 -3 -2 -3 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 239 241 240 241 238 229 230 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.9 21.7 20.8 27.9 30.9 31.1 23.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 91 79 70 145 173 174 97 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 3 3 3 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 50 48 50 54 53 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 18 15 13 8 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -4 -11 -13 -16 -3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 40 45 38 38 31 43 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -4 4 3 3 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 185 105 62 -5 7 -347 -688 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.1 28.0 28.9 30.2 31.4 34.4 37.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.7 116.1 115.4 114.7 114.1 112.8 111.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 13 14 14 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 4 40 6 4 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 10 CX,CY: 5/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 682 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -2. 0. 2. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. -2. -13. -31. -50. -66. -76. -76. -75. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 17. 18. 19. 19. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -6. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -6. -12. -17. -17. -20. -24. -26. -26. -26. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -8. -7. -8. -11. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -13. -15. -19. -22. -29. -44. -59. -70. -78. -77. -79. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 27.1 116.7 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202018 ROSA 10/01/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.27 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.38 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.91 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.51 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 200.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.65 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.73 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.66 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202018 ROSA 10/01/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX