* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WALAKA CP012018 10/01/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 125 137 143 147 147 138 121 109 100 88 75 68 64 V (KT) LAND 125 137 143 147 147 138 121 109 100 88 75 68 64 V (KT) LGEM 125 135 140 138 135 123 109 91 73 58 51 46 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 5 4 7 10 21 26 22 6 13 13 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 0 -1 0 10 9 10 1 3 8 10 SHEAR DIR 317 256 256 268 262 241 255 255 242 254 313 250 217 SST (C) 30.2 30.0 29.7 29.4 29.4 29.5 27.9 26.9 26.2 26.1 25.1 24.2 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 167 165 161 158 159 161 145 135 127 124 113 107 95 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.0 -51.9 -51.9 -51.9 -51.0 -51.0 -50.3 -50.5 -50.7 -51.6 -52.0 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.6 1.5 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.2 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 10 8 6 6 5 5 5 4 2 700-500 MB RH 75 73 72 71 73 69 62 54 57 56 58 54 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 32 35 34 38 40 41 43 43 42 36 32 29 26 850 MB ENV VOR 91 84 80 80 82 100 108 151 163 135 89 74 46 200 MB DIV 152 152 111 111 143 145 133 44 30 22 27 43 54 700-850 TADV 8 8 9 11 14 22 32 37 37 3 9 26 52 LAND (KM) 1422 1422 1429 1397 1371 1250 1043 884 928 1059 1175 1240 1428 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 13.3 13.9 14.7 15.4 17.8 20.3 23.3 26.8 29.0 30.2 31.9 34.8 LONG(DEG W) 168.9 169.6 170.3 170.6 170.8 170.9 169.7 168.3 167.3 167.0 167.3 165.8 162.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 8 10 13 15 17 14 8 8 15 20 HEAT CONTENT 40 41 49 54 62 71 24 6 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -3. -8. -17. -29. -39. -48. -54. -59. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -5. -5. -1. 1. 0. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -8. -6. -3. -3. -1. 1. PERSISTENCE 10. 13. 13. 11. 6. 2. -2. -5. -7. -10. -12. -12. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 5. 7. 9. 10. 13. 13. 6. 0. -4. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 11. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 12. 18. 22. 22. 13. -4. -16. -25. -37. -50. -57. -61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 12.6 168.9 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012018 WALAKA 10/01/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 35.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.86 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.83 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 49.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.45 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 133.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.88 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.95 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.09 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 333.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.48 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.58 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 69% is 11.4 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 58% is 4.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 69.4% 58.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 66.4% 38.0% 40.4% 31.8% 22.4% 11.1% 2.6% 0.0% Bayesian: 76.3% 28.4% 22.8% 13.7% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 70.7% 41.5% 21.0% 15.2% 7.8% 3.7% 0.9% 0.0% DTOPS: 60.0% 31.0% 17.0% 10.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012018 WALAKA 10/01/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX