* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WALAKA CP012018 10/02/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 140 151 153 153 150 134 116 99 89 76 63 53 52 V (KT) LAND 140 151 153 153 150 134 116 99 89 76 63 53 52 V (KT) LGEM 140 147 145 140 133 120 100 79 60 50 44 40 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 5 6 4 6 16 23 31 9 15 13 14 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 0 0 4 14 5 3 5 3 11 17 SHEAR DIR 302 272 249 240 251 241 257 258 247 316 304 238 184 SST (C) 30.1 29.7 29.5 29.3 29.4 29.0 27.1 26.9 26.1 25.3 24.5 23.6 21.4 POT. INT. (KT) 165 162 160 157 159 157 137 135 125 115 107 102 80 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -51.8 -51.4 -51.3 -50.6 -50.6 -50.6 -51.1 -51.8 -52.0 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.8 1.7 1.0 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 9 9 7 7 5 5 6 4 2 1 700-500 MB RH 74 71 69 73 72 67 58 51 58 55 56 46 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 36 36 38 40 39 44 41 37 32 28 24 24 850 MB ENV VOR 92 85 79 77 86 100 112 153 142 88 89 46 12 200 MB DIV 173 127 107 141 176 153 142 44 25 38 35 32 76 700-850 TADV 6 9 14 14 19 26 48 59 16 5 17 19 63 LAND (KM) 1450 1427 1412 1360 1314 1140 938 880 1006 1147 1241 1329 1616 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.7 14.5 15.4 16.2 18.8 22.0 25.2 28.2 30.1 31.2 33.2 36.7 LONG(DEG W) 169.6 170.1 170.6 170.7 170.7 170.2 168.9 167.7 167.1 167.0 167.0 164.9 160.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 11 15 17 16 13 7 9 19 23 HEAT CONTENT 40 46 54 61 70 42 12 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -16. -28. -41. -53. -63. -71. -76. -78. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -9. -11. -6. -1. 0. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -6. -3. -2. -2. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 10. 13. 12. 9. 5. 0. -4. -7. -9. -13. -15. -15. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 9. 8. 4. -3. -9. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 5. 5. 7. 8. 13. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 11. 13. 13. 10. -6. -24. -41. -51. -64. -77. -87. -88. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 140. LAT, LON: 12.9 169.6 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012018 WALAKA 10/02/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 17.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 35.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.86 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.82 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 54.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.50 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 144.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.94 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.91 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 140.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 399.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.40 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.46 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 49% is 8.1 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 49.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 45.8% 16.5% 19.2% 14.3% 5.8% 3.5% 0.7% 0.0% Bayesian: 33.9% 3.6% 1.8% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 43.0% 6.7% 7.0% 5.1% 2.0% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 15.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012018 WALAKA 10/02/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX