* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WALAKA CP012018 10/02/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 140 142 139 136 132 115 97 86 79 70 62 57 53 V (KT) LAND 140 142 139 136 132 115 97 86 79 70 62 57 53 V (KT) LGEM 140 139 134 128 122 106 86 66 51 43 39 35 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 7 10 7 12 22 28 25 5 12 15 20 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 -2 0 1 10 15 10 0 2 5 5 17 SHEAR DIR 263 260 256 264 242 249 254 243 267 324 289 241 189 SST (C) 29.9 29.5 29.2 29.2 29.4 27.8 26.9 26.2 25.9 24.7 24.1 23.0 19.7 POT. INT. (KT) 164 159 157 157 160 145 135 127 122 109 105 97 67 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.1 -51.6 -51.7 -51.5 -50.9 -51.0 -51.1 -51.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 1.4 1.4 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 8 6 6 5 5 4 4 2 1 700-500 MB RH 73 71 72 74 72 63 53 56 58 56 51 43 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 34 34 36 38 38 39 36 31 27 24 21 20 850 MB ENV VOR 82 68 65 72 78 83 127 147 104 73 46 8 -25 200 MB DIV 160 113 139 177 154 149 77 29 16 39 45 57 54 700-850 TADV 10 14 15 19 18 32 61 45 2 -1 23 45 36 LAND (KM) 1418 1368 1322 1249 1183 959 833 934 1104 1206 1203 1416 1783 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 14.4 15.2 16.3 17.4 20.4 23.8 26.9 29.4 31.0 31.9 34.7 39.7 LONG(DEG W) 169.8 170.0 170.1 170.0 170.0 168.9 167.7 167.3 167.2 166.7 165.0 162.4 158.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 11 13 17 17 14 10 8 13 24 30 HEAT CONTENT 43 49 55 66 66 22 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -6. -9. -17. -29. -43. -55. -65. -73. -77. -81. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -11. -16. -16. -8. -3. -1. -3. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -5. -3. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 3. -4. -10. -14. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 5. 5. 7. 9. 13. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. -1. -4. -8. -25. -43. -54. -61. -70. -78. -83. -87. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 140. LAT, LON: 13.5 169.8 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012018 WALAKA 10/02/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 16.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.65 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 55.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.51 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 148.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.96 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 140.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 348.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.46 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.47 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.7% 3.4% 2.5% 1.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 5.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.2% 1.3% 1.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012018 WALAKA 10/02/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX