* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WALAKA CP012018 10/02/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 135 132 130 126 121 107 91 84 78 70 66 62 56 V (KT) LAND 135 132 130 126 121 107 91 84 78 70 66 62 56 V (KT) LGEM 135 130 124 118 112 95 75 57 47 42 38 35 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 10 16 17 19 28 5 12 7 8 3 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 -2 4 17 8 2 0 -2 1 9 20 SHEAR DIR 244 270 251 244 235 251 240 215 306 8 292 196 157 SST (C) 29.5 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.2 27.3 26.5 26.0 24.7 23.7 23.9 22.0 15.6 POT. INT. (KT) 159 156 157 159 159 140 131 125 110 100 104 88 69 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -51.6 -51.6 -51.8 -51.0 -50.8 -51.0 -51.0 -51.9 -52.5 -53.0 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.4 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 8 7 7 5 4 5 4 3 1 0 700-500 MB RH 68 71 70 70 67 56 54 62 58 58 47 41 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 35 36 37 37 38 38 33 29 27 25 24 23 850 MB ENV VOR 69 68 67 76 76 98 135 113 60 63 28 26 -53 200 MB DIV 139 129 119 111 122 116 38 45 4 62 45 67 69 700-850 TADV 10 13 16 18 29 46 47 12 -2 -6 0 -7 2 LAND (KM) 1383 1335 1292 1198 1118 899 852 1028 1195 1264 1238 1633 1410 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 15.0 15.8 17.2 18.6 21.6 25.2 28.5 30.6 32.1 32.9 36.9 43.4 LONG(DEG W) 170.0 170.1 170.2 170.0 169.9 168.5 167.4 167.1 167.1 165.9 163.1 159.6 155.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 11 14 15 17 18 14 9 10 18 31 36 HEAT CONTENT 45 50 57 63 40 16 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 140 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -7. -16. -28. -41. -53. -63. -70. -75. -78. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -2. -5. -8. -13. -18. -12. -6. -1. 2. 2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. 0. -1. 0. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. -1. -6. -10. -12. -14. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -9. -14. -28. -44. -51. -57. -65. -69. -73. -79. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 135. LAT, LON: 14.2 170.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012018 WALAKA 10/02/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.50 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 51.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.47 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 124.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.83 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 135.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 423.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.37 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.41 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 1.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012018 WALAKA 10/02/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX