* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WALAKA CP012018 10/02/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 130 125 122 116 112 98 84 82 77 68 69 65 51 V (KT) LAND 130 125 122 116 112 98 84 82 77 68 69 65 51 V (KT) LGEM 130 124 119 113 105 86 66 51 43 38 34 28 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 13 20 23 32 16 3 16 11 10 12 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 4 10 12 7 -1 0 2 9 18 19 SHEAR DIR 286 254 243 250 250 252 226 270 328 306 301 167 190 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.3 29.1 28.0 26.7 26.1 25.1 24.5 23.7 23.2 20.4 16.0 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 159 158 147 134 126 113 106 101 98 70 67 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -51.7 -51.6 -51.7 -51.4 -50.5 -50.7 -50.5 -50.9 -51.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 1.6 1.4 1.2 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 7 7 7 5 5 5 4 3 2 0 700-500 MB RH 70 70 69 65 60 50 57 59 58 52 40 27 25 MODEL VTX (KT) 32 36 37 35 37 40 37 33 30 26 26 24 18 850 MB ENV VOR 69 74 79 78 96 113 132 101 89 86 49 -11 -92 200 MB DIV 133 152 141 148 157 37 34 31 37 46 59 38 36 700-850 TADV 14 16 17 31 46 60 40 4 11 14 51 10 -5 LAND (KM) 1329 1242 1164 1060 977 824 1007 1200 1235 1250 1362 1790 1369 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 16.3 17.4 19.0 20.5 24.2 28.0 30.1 30.7 32.0 34.3 38.3 43.7 LONG(DEG W) 170.1 170.0 169.8 169.5 169.1 167.5 167.3 167.8 167.6 165.8 161.8 158.7 155.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 14 16 18 19 15 7 7 15 21 26 29 HEAT CONTENT 51 59 58 31 19 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 140 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -15. -27. -40. -51. -60. -67. -72. -75. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -9. -13. -20. -22. -15. -10. -5. -3. -2. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 2. 5. 7. 4. 1. -3. -9. -9. -11. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 10. 12. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -8. -14. -18. -32. -46. -48. -53. -62. -61. -65. -79. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 15.1 170.1 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012018 WALAKA 10/02/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.25 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.40 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 146.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.95 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 130.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.03 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 438.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.35 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.35 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012018 WALAKA 10/02/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX