* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WALAKA CP012018 10/03/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 108 103 98 93 80 73 68 62 57 57 52 40 V (KT) LAND 115 108 103 98 93 80 73 68 62 57 57 52 40 V (KT) LGEM 115 107 100 93 85 70 55 45 39 37 35 30 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 14 18 25 22 34 11 13 7 12 11 12 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 3 9 15 9 3 0 -5 3 3 16 11 SHEAR DIR 245 234 243 244 251 263 215 330 335 241 230 181 201 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.1 28.0 27.2 26.5 26.2 24.9 24.0 23.3 21.2 18.2 14.1 POT. INT. (KT) 157 159 158 147 139 131 126 111 103 98 79 67 68 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -51.7 -50.9 -50.7 -50.7 -50.9 -51.4 -51.4 -52.1 -52.9 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.8 0.9 1.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 6 6 5 4 5 4 3 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 72 69 66 59 55 52 59 57 55 48 36 29 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 35 34 34 35 35 35 33 28 25 22 23 20 17 850 MB ENV VOR 74 73 74 86 87 134 133 81 113 53 33 -40 -102 200 MB DIV 156 137 139 138 84 -8 22 17 67 47 74 56 47 700-850 TADV 13 16 28 39 52 63 21 -2 5 -13 -20 -5 -19 LAND (KM) 1274 1181 1101 988 906 874 1051 1202 1271 1383 1649 1576 1068 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 17.5 18.8 20.5 22.2 25.5 28.3 30.3 31.6 33.8 37.0 41.7 47.4 LONG(DEG W) 170.2 170.0 169.8 169.2 168.6 167.5 167.6 167.6 166.9 164.7 160.8 156.6 152.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 15 18 18 15 12 9 11 18 26 31 32 HEAT CONTENT 61 61 35 19 15 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 9 CX,CY: 0/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 135 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 656 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -3. -10. -19. -30. -40. -47. -54. -59. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -6. -10. -14. -20. -19. -15. -10. -6. -5. -5. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 2. 2. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -6. -8. -8. -7. -5. -3. 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -2. -8. -13. -19. -18. -21. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -12. -17. -22. -35. -42. -47. -53. -58. -58. -63. -75. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 16.1 170.2 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012018 WALAKA 10/03/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.07 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.35 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 130.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.87 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.88 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 448.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.34 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.93 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.47 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012018 WALAKA 10/03/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX