* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WALAKA CP012018 10/03/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 108 103 96 88 76 66 58 55 51 46 31 DIS V (KT) LAND 115 108 103 96 88 76 66 58 55 51 46 31 DIS V (KT) LGEM 115 108 99 90 81 62 48 38 33 30 25 18 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 22 22 27 31 26 12 17 8 19 35 43 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 6 13 13 12 6 5 -2 5 3 14 11 9 SHEAR DIR 235 235 246 249 255 248 308 325 269 223 197 196 229 SST (C) 29.4 29.0 28.0 27.2 26.9 26.1 24.9 24.0 23.5 21.6 17.6 15.3 13.6 POT. INT. (KT) 160 157 147 139 136 127 112 102 99 83 67 65 64 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -51.9 -51.3 -51.0 -51.1 -51.0 -51.4 -51.4 -51.5 -51.4 -52.4 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.5 1.3 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 6 6 6 4 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 68 63 58 54 52 53 55 56 53 42 32 29 21 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 33 36 35 35 35 31 27 24 23 23 18 12 850 MB ENV VOR 86 84 92 81 106 121 95 95 96 45 11 -44 -43 200 MB DIV 178 150 111 91 6 -2 -6 35 35 63 63 27 -20 700-850 TADV 22 35 42 45 50 34 9 8 6 4 28 9 -3 LAND (KM) 1193 1085 998 906 851 981 1229 1302 1319 1570 1558 1187 1074 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 19.0 20.5 22.1 23.7 27.5 30.3 31.7 32.9 36.1 41.7 45.6 48.3 LONG(DEG W) 170.1 169.7 169.3 168.6 167.9 167.4 168.0 167.3 165.4 162.5 158.8 154.5 149.9 STM SPEED (KT) 14 16 16 17 18 16 10 9 15 26 28 23 20 HEAT CONTENT 63 32 20 15 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 11 CX,CY: 1/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -4. -12. -21. -33. -42. -51. -58. -63. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -8. -13. -18. -24. -22. -19. -14. -12. -14. -20. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 1. 2. -2. -8. -12. -15. -15. -22. -28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 8. 10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -12. -19. -27. -39. -49. -57. -60. -64. -69. -84.-101. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 17.4 170.1 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012018 WALAKA 10/03/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.25 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 107.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.74 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.87 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 542.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.22 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.90 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.45 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012018 WALAKA 10/03/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX