* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WALAKA CP012018 10/03/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 120 117 110 101 91 77 63 55 46 41 28 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 120 117 110 101 91 77 63 55 46 41 28 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 120 115 106 95 83 61 47 39 35 31 23 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 21 21 23 29 33 9 14 10 15 23 43 52 69 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 10 13 17 11 0 1 -3 5 10 15 9 1 SHEAR DIR 238 246 248 243 247 236 329 302 225 198 199 216 266 SST (C) 29.1 28.0 28.3 27.2 26.0 25.6 24.3 23.4 22.7 20.4 16.0 13.2 12.9 POT. INT. (KT) 158 147 150 139 126 120 105 98 92 71 68 68 68 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.0 -51.3 -50.9 -50.7 -51.1 -51.6 -52.3 -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 -52.7 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.9 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.3 2.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 64 58 52 54 52 57 55 54 44 33 27 20 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 34 34 34 35 31 27 25 20 21 17 8 11 850 MB ENV VOR 82 86 78 115 119 112 78 99 43 9 -63 -91 13 200 MB DIV 158 109 74 35 -15 0 3 56 45 70 35 0 -53 700-850 TADV 43 41 45 36 50 23 -4 12 -28 3 19 -60 -66 LAND (KM) 1091 985 907 854 857 1065 1208 1293 1454 1846 1305 1016 620 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 20.4 22.0 23.9 25.7 28.9 30.6 32.3 34.8 38.8 44.2 48.9 53.0 LONG(DEG W) 169.7 169.2 168.6 167.9 167.2 167.2 167.3 166.1 163.6 160.3 156.3 150.0 142.0 STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 18 20 17 12 9 13 20 28 31 32 32 HEAT CONTENT 31 17 14 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 14 CX,CY: 4/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -16. -28. -39. -50. -59. -66. -70. -72. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -10. -16. -21. -22. -20. -16. -11. -10. -15. -22. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 9. 10. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. -2. -7. -10. -18. -18. -23. -35. -31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -10. -19. -28. -43. -57. -65. -74. -79. -92.-115.-129. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 18.8 169.7 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012018 WALAKA 10/03/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.12 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.56 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.86 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.16 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 632.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.11 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.43 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012018 WALAKA 10/03/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX