* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WALAKA CP012018 10/03/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 120 114 103 92 84 69 55 49 43 21 22 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 120 114 103 92 84 69 55 49 43 21 22 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 120 114 104 90 77 56 44 37 30 21 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 26 25 29 32 19 5 16 11 30 41 53 62 61 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 14 15 15 13 10 4 1 11 13 13 7 1 10 SHEAR DIR 249 244 251 252 238 274 336 248 201 201 218 257 296 SST (C) 27.9 28.2 27.0 26.0 25.8 24.7 23.9 23.1 21.3 17.7 14.2 12.6 13.5 POT. INT. (KT) 146 150 137 126 123 110 102 96 80 67 68 67 66 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.3 -51.1 -51.1 -51.5 -51.3 -51.5 -52.0 -52.4 -53.1 -54.0 -55.8 -57.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 59 52 52 53 55 56 53 49 37 30 30 31 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 32 32 34 34 29 25 23 22 13 19 12 12 850 MB ENV VOR 75 57 97 113 110 100 80 65 9 -125 -220 -139 -93 200 MB DIV 111 89 5 -17 19 -3 35 57 41 43 10 -17 -71 700-850 TADV 55 57 44 36 33 8 -4 17 7 -4 14 -12 -53 LAND (KM) 957 865 821 872 963 1173 1247 1352 1656 1566 1048 903 364 LAT (DEG N) 20.5 22.3 24.1 25.9 27.7 30.1 31.4 33.5 37.0 41.7 47.4 51.6 54.6 LONG(DEG W) 168.9 168.2 167.5 167.3 167.0 167.4 166.8 164.7 161.6 157.5 152.8 146.5 139.1 STM SPEED (KT) 19 19 18 18 15 9 10 18 25 31 31 28 26 HEAT CONTENT 16 13 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 18 CX,CY: 6/ 17 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -10. -20. -32. -43. -53. -62. -69. -73. -75. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -5. -13. -19. -22. -20. -19. -14. -13. -16. -23. -31. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 10. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 0. -5. -8. -12. -15. -29. -21. -31. -29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -17. -28. -36. -51. -65. -71. -77. -99. -98.-118.-133. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 20.5 168.9 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012018 WALAKA 10/03/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 17.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.05 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.39 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.16 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 659.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.08 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.44 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012018 WALAKA 10/03/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX